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re: AGW Deniers - Seems Kind of Hopeless

Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:18 pm to
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
57517 posts
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:18 pm to
quote:

Sorry if I was unclear, the general consensus seems to be that carbon is a driving factor.....not THE driver. I was trying to make that distinction
So... if you think there are other drivers... what portion do you believe is due to CO2? And what do you suppose are the other drivers?

quote:

Yes dude, Im a software engineer I realize how these things work.
Few actaully write modeling software. I cannot believe you are one of them from your posts.

quote:

The clarification I was making was regarding the focus on carbon because its a factor we have control over.
Sorry. I have no idea what you're trying to say.

quote:

Just because a model we includes all of these as force variables turns out to be inaccurate does NOT mean that one or all of the variables dont contribute at all.
Indeed. It means the model is structurally inaccurate, presuming any sort of sensitivity analysis was done. (poor assumption with climate models, though)

quote:

It could also mean that one or more of the VALUES attributed to the input variables could be wrong.
And CO2 is ONE OF THOSE INPUT VARIABLES THAT COULD BE WRONG.

quote:

For example, they might have UNDER weighted one of the non-carbon variables, skewing the results.
The most likely candidate is cloud and water vapor--as those parameters are by even the most ardent AGW supporters admit--poorly modeled with very low fidelity.
quote:



No thats not what Im arguing at all. See above.
It's exactly what you're saying. Your saying modeling state inputs are wrong--but somehow excluding CO2 as being on of the incorrect ones.

Feel free to show us your regression analysis isolating CO2 leading you to that conclusion. Pick any IPCC model of your own choice. I'd love to see it.
This post was edited on 5/19/14 at 9:23 pm
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:19 pm to
quote:

Feel free to show us your regression analysis isolating CO2 leading you to that conclusion. Pick any IPCC model of your own choice. I'd love to see it.



Posted by AUbused
Member since Dec 2013
7785 posts
Posted on 5/19/14 at 9:26 pm to
quote:

Few actaully write modeling software. I cannot believe you are one of them from your posts.


You dont have to write modeling software to understand what a big arse system of equations is.

quote:

It's exactly what you're saying. Your saying modeling state inputs are wrong--but somehow excluding CO2 as being on of the incorrect ones.


I didn't state that explicitly, I argued that the model being wrong didnt NECESSARILY prove that carbon isn't a contributing driver. The difference there is quite significant.
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