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re: A look back at the 49ers trade of Alex smith
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:39 pm to schexyoung
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:39 pm to schexyoung
how do you "break down" the tQBR when you don't have the formula to analyze?
2
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:48 pm to SlowFlowPro
A better response...
When attempting to make a subjective comparison (QB to QB) over data (stats) and then indexing the results (ranking), some funky outliers always occur due to the subjective nature of selecting and weighing variables. The goal is not to get a 100% accurate model, as that is likely not cost effective or in some cases possible. You could easily have a 100% accurately ranked analysis that only used total passing yards. While this would be accurate in a sense, it would not be a complete representation of the QB performance. Instead, you desire to build a model to better compare and analysis the factors that determine QB performance. However, this will also increase the number of variables and the subjectivity of the analysis. As with any model of this nature, a certain tolerable error rate is accepted as a sacrifice.
When attempting to make a subjective comparison (QB to QB) over data (stats) and then indexing the results (ranking), some funky outliers always occur due to the subjective nature of selecting and weighing variables. The goal is not to get a 100% accurate model, as that is likely not cost effective or in some cases possible. You could easily have a 100% accurately ranked analysis that only used total passing yards. While this would be accurate in a sense, it would not be a complete representation of the QB performance. Instead, you desire to build a model to better compare and analysis the factors that determine QB performance. However, this will also increase the number of variables and the subjectivity of the analysis. As with any model of this nature, a certain tolerable error rate is accepted as a sacrifice.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:56 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
how do you "break down" the tQBR when you don't have the formula to analyze?
By making certain assumptions and testing assertions for positive/negative correlations.
If we were getting paid, we probably could get close.
Do we know all the variables? No. Do we know exactly how they are weighted? No. However, its not difficult to determine this model captures more representative information than the traditional model.
ESPN has done a bad job of rolling this analytic out.
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