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re: NCAA March Madness Hard to Pick Games

Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:07 am to
Posted by jsk020
Nola
Member since Jan 2013
1701 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:07 am to
quote:

Baylor allows its opponents to shoot 36.7% from 3 so McDermott is going to go in dry.. (if they beat Nebraska)


Baylor is so overseeded
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37901 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:10 am to
Not entirely. Their Ken Pom ranking would have had them at a 7 or 8 seed as well. They just have a potential matchup nightmare.
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
51142 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:10 am to
Good stuff.


Texas and their 2nd chance points

Looks like Okie State and Butch will go as far as Smart takes 'em.

The Cornhusker State showdown in Rd 2 would be interesting.

Thoughts on Dayton/Ohio State?
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16835 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:12 am to
quote:

Not making the mistake this year of going with New Mexico


As someone above mentioned, Steve Alford is no longer their coach. That's why I don't get all the UCLA love this year. Alford has never produced in the NCAA tournament, and that's including last year, in which he had a pretty stacked team, and got beat in the first round as a 3 seed.
Posted by rockchlkjayhku11
Cincinnati, OH
Member since Aug 2006
36490 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:14 am to
quote:

I just don't know much about the Big12 besides they got a bunch of teams in.

dont worry about conference affiliation. this probably kills people every year. the big 12 is awesome, but iowa state and kansas are the only locks to win game 1.

i think i actually picked 6 out of 7 big 12 teams, but they are all favorites and i think they will win. it had nothing to do with being in the big 12.
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37901 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:24 am to
quote:

Looks like Okie State and Butch will go as far as Smart takes 'em.
I wouldn't expect them to meet their seed expectations which is to win one game (.59 average wins for a 9 seed.)

quote:

Thoughts on Dayton/Ohio State?
Matta has only lost in the first round once in 11 trips to the NCAAs and that was as an 8 seed opposed to the 6 seed this year. KenPom ranks OSU at 20, Dayton 51 with a good offense, average defense. OSU dominates on defense (top 10 efficiency) and on average only turns the ball over 6 times per 100 possessions.. I'll take OSU but Syracuse in the next round.
Posted by tzimme4
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
28539 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:29 am to
Picking VCU to lose to Stephen F Austin is a suckers pick. Same with Harvard
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37901 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:30 am to
quote:

Picking VCU to lose to Stephen F Austin is a suckers pick.
SFA does not have a starter over 6'6''…
This post was edited on 3/19/14 at 10:31 am
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
51142 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:38 am to
quote:

OSU dominates on defense (top 10 efficiency) and on average only turns the ball over 6 times per 100 possessions.. I'll take OSU but Syracuse in the next round.


You're talking me into my pics

I also respect the Big 10, maybe too much. Have a tough time picking against Ohio State (1rst Rd), Wisc, Michigan St, Michigan in general.
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
51142 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:38 am to
quote:

SFA does not have a starter over 6'6''…
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
51142 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:40 am to
quote:

dont worry about conference affiliation. this probably kills people every year


Very good point.

For example the SEC only got a few teams, but Fla obviously, and UK..even TN, could do some damage.
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37901 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:47 am to
quote:

.even TN, could do some damage.
Tennessee is 28th in offensive efficiency and ranks 16th in defensive efficiency. Only Villanova, Florida, Louisville and Wichita State rank higher in both categories
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
51142 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 10:54 am to
quote:

Tennessee is 28th in offensive efficiency and ranks 16th in defensive efficiency


I really hope the Vols don't blow it against Iowa tonight because the way LSU matched up with Umass, I like TN to beat them.
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37901 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 11:00 am to
I just realized an 11 seed has one at least one game every tournament since 2005.. So I should have Providence, Dayton, Nebraska or IA/TN should win at least one game. Yikes.
Posted by lsusportsman2
Member since Oct 2007
27232 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 11:03 am to
By far the hardest pick of the 1st/2nd round games is Providence vs. UNC. I have no idea who's even gonna win. I have UNC in one bracket, and Providence in the other.
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
51142 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 11:05 am to
the best chance for 11 in my eyes in Providence, but none look that great, maybe Nebraska?
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37901 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 11:09 am to
According to Nate Silver, Tennessee has the best odds out of all the 11 seeds at 36% then Providence at 32% and Nebraska at 30%. Dayton's not as close with only 25%. If Tennessee wins tonight I'll probably go with them.
Posted by tzimme4
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
28539 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 11:09 am to
Tennessee should beat UMass if they dont screw it up against a bad Iowa team of late
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 11:25 am to
Iowa should be UMass should they beat Tennessee as well.

I know Baylor-Nebraska is trendy, but you beat Baylor because their perimeter defense is atrocious. Nebraska doesn't really exploit that weakness, as they are pretty miserable offensive team (99th in offensive efficiency). I like Baylor to win and then lose by 20 to Creighton.
Posted by goldenbadger08
Sorting Out MSB BS Since 2011
Member since Oct 2011
37901 posts
Posted on 3/19/14 at 11:26 am to
quote:

Iowa should be UMass should they beat Tennessee as well.
wat
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