Updated at 2:20 LINK

Issued by The National Weather Service
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Sun, Jan 26, 2014, 11:51 AM CST
Local Radar Map
Updated Jan 26, 2014, 2:20pm CST

... SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OFTEN THIS WINTER... ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL END AS THE COLDER AIR PENETRATES FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MYRIAD TYPES OF PRECIPITATION DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEAR THE SURFACE AT THE TIME OF OCCURRENCE IN ANY ONE LOCATION.

AT THIS TIME THE GREATER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAPERING OFF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AREA OF GREATER IMPACTS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE LOWER PARISHES OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. WHILE TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN... IT DOES APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE... ENOUGH TO GLAZE EXPOSED SURFACES WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

THE PARISHES AND COUNTIES NORTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AN ONSET OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

IT IS WITH GREATER CERTAINTY THAT A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES. A LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZE IS LIKELY CLOSER TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND AREAS NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL MARINE AREAS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS AND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY BE AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE MOISTURE PENETRATES NORTHWARD INTO THE COLDER AIR... ALL PARISHES AND COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. THIS REMAINS A FLUID SITUATION IN REGARDS TO DETAILING WHAT IMPACTS MAY AFFECT PARTICULAR LOCATIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OF SOME WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND/OR A WINTER WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY.