re: Melting arctic means opportunity... and possible conflict

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The effect is straight forward according to the physical characteristics of water in its two states. Sea levels will be reduced by @4%. Water expands by that number when it freezes, you can test that at home with a glass of iced water before and after the ice has melted, just mark the glass while the ice hasn't melted then afterwards.

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Water expands by 20% when it freezes. For example, icebergs have 20% of their mass above water and 80% below water.

Also, if your water level changed after the ice melted, then you're doing it wrong. There should be no change in water level (minus thermal expansion which you won't see because it is microscopic).