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First is the china deal. Introduction to the largest provider in the world and the $99 5c with a contract will grow their international sales without creating a bad rep for a poor quality phone. People in China seem to love US "style" and entertainment. This could backfire, but i see it creating a huge surge of sales.

AAPL has competition probably even greater than Android in China from Xiaomi. It will be a sales driver but not the levels they are used to seeing.

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Second, the mobile/online transaction and business community should salivate at the new biometric fingerprint security. Apple has always been rumored to be behind in the business/financial share of the mobile market due to security, but now they have what can be viewed as the most secure form of transactions if the fingerprint thing is mostly functional the way it's being received.

While AAPL does have a head start on the fingerprint technology they don't have a water tight control over the patents. I also don't expect fingerprints to be the 'end all be all' for mobile to mobile security, simply because people use each other's cards all the time and sometimes its difficult to constantly add and take off certain user fingerprints from the database for bank accounts/cards.

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People complain of the closed system and the diminishing market share, but they continue to create quality phones/products and find ways to impress.

That's the key here. Nobody is predicting their imminent demise, but their diminishing market share and potential pressure on margins does not oblige a $500 stock. Their debt has also has been horrible since issuance, massively underperforming similar credit and Treasuries, especially at the long end.

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Posted by Cmlsu5618

Destin, FL

Member since Sep 2010

3763 posts

Posted on 9/12/13 at 8:51 am to BennyAndTheInkJets

So Benny...

I take it you are not as confident in Apple's market position, and you have balance sheet concerns as well?

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Posted by Cracking

Northshore

Member since Aug 2006

3432 posts

Posted on 9/12/13 at 11:29 am to BennyAndTheInkJets

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BennyAndTheInkJets

Thank you for you response to my post. It may seem funny to thank you, but you have forgotten more about investing than I know...I am as novice as a novice gets in investing. But I like to look deeper than the superficial analysis on blogs and from critics, and your view does dig deeper, but looks more skeptical/bearish in nature than my optimistic view of AAPL.

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AAPL has competition probably even greater than Android in China from Xiaomi. It will be a sales driver but not the levels they are used to seeing.

AAPL does have competition in China, but up to this point hasn't had access to the biggest market for mobile devices. This will naturally provide them an increase in sales and new AAPL fans. Also compatibility between devices will boost sales of muscic, apps, ipods, macs and whatever else they sell in the future. Seems like nothing but a huge step to me... maybe I'm wrong, but AAPL makes a good product and competes well.

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While AAPL does have a head start on the fingerprint technology they don't have a water tight control over the patents. I also don't expect fingerprints to be the 'end all be all' for mobile to mobile security, simply because people use each other's cards all the time and sometimes its difficult to constantly add and take off certain user fingerprints from the database for bank accounts/cards.

Agreed, but they could become the most reliable means of using biometric security based on their head start and suppression of copycats. This could allow them to fix functionality problems and make it more user friendly. I know I said could twice, but nobody else is really introducing this option for secure online purchases yet.

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That's the key here. Nobody is predicting their imminent demise, but their diminishing market share and potential pressure on margins does not oblige a $500 stock. Their debt has also has been horrible since issuance, massively underperforming similar credit and Treasuries, especially at the long end.

Lot's of people say "get out now" and "AAPL is over." I ignore them. AAPL is looking to expand market share with the above developments, and I think it's going to be very good for the sales. AAPL doesn't respond much to pressure on margins, they just keep doing what they do well, and I think they adapt enough to remain competitive.

My final thought is that AAPL will likely not stay lower than the 490 range based on Karl Ichan's investment. He is not going to lose that much money. What would kill AAPL's stock is if he or another big share holder dumped it and started to criticize. I don't think it hurts the company's sales and products, just the value of the stock.