This is an interesting way to think about it. I do think that this is essentially what I do except that I use my gut instead of adding up the numbers.

The only problem with it is that your charts and ratings are only going to be as good as your projections, which I think are necessarily just slightly better than a crap shoot.

There are probably ways to test various projections and make your own models for the forecasts, but that is just way more work than I have been willing to put into it at this point. Although I have thought about trying to work on it in the past, I just haven't motivated myself enough to actually work on it.

I'm not convinced that good models and forecasts can be made anyway because someone smarter and wealthier than I would have probably already done it for more lucrative ventures than fantasy football.

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Posted by CaptainJ47

Gonzales

Member since Nov 2007

7374 posts

Posted on 8/21/13 at 6:18 pm to Peazey

I actually use Yahoo or FFToolbox projected point values and then create a percentage difference by player from the person ranked ahead, two ahead, and three ahead of each player. My concept is that I will take the position most likely to have the largest percentage drop if I wait to snag that position the next round.

ETA- the key here is QBs 4-8 may all be only slightly different but WR 10 to 13 could mean a huge difference. Therefore it would place a premium on selecting a WR over a QB.

Sheer opportunity costs but I am an economist at heart.

This post was edited on 8/21/13 at 6:20 pm

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Posted by The Easter Bunny

Minnesota

Member since Jan 2005

45570 posts

Posted on 8/21/13 at 6:33 pm to Peazey

quote:
The only problem with it is that your charts and ratings are only going to be as good as your projections, which I think are necessarily just slightly better than a crap shoot.

That's why I make a spreadsheet with 5-6 different site's projections and look at averages and standard deviations.

I love preparing for the draft