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re: Scoring distribution
Posted on 7/29/13 at 1:50 pm to brmark70816
Posted on 7/29/13 at 1:50 pm to brmark70816
quote:
So it got me thinking that we have 5 guys that are projected to score 15+ppg. Is that possible? If it isn't, who's numbers suffer?
Last season: LINK
Team eFG% 48.9 17th in league
Team Pace 88.5 29th in league
I'm not getting the numbers to match up our actual PPG, but eFG converts 3s to 2s and pace is your shots per 48 minutes. In theory 88.5 x .489 x 2 should give us the PPG but I got 86.5 vs. actual PPG of 94.1. Anyone see what I'm missing?
Looking at how others fair, a jump to a pace of 92 possessions per game (around 15th in the league) and an eFG% of 50.5% (around 11th in the league) doesn't seem unreasonable and that leads to 92.9 rather than 86.5. An increase of 6.4 PPG
Top scorers last season
Gordon 17
Anderson 16.2
Vasquez 13.9
Davis 13.5
Lopez 11.3
So just the expected increase in pace and efficiency could get you there
17
16.2
15
15
15
with .1 points to spare.
3
Posted on 7/29/13 at 2:18 pm to TigerinATL
Nice, at first I was thinking it was a silly, though, but it's really not. Now, we may not get many from anyone else on the team, but I wasn't counting on Aminu or Rivers for many points, anyway.
Posted on 7/29/13 at 2:41 pm to TigerinATL
rivers/aminu/morrow should get 15-20 ppg a night between them
This post was edited on 7/29/13 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 7/29/13 at 7:44 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
So just the expected increase in pace and efficiency could get you there
That is an awfully flat distribution. You would think one of the guys would pull away and score closer to 20ppg (Gordon?). I also think Davis will make a bit more of a jump, given he will be the primary, or only, post option. If his scoring only goes up 1.5 a game, I think that might be a bad sign.
I'm guessing/hoping we will have a similar distribution as Denver. Last season they had 6 guys in double figures, with 5 over 12ppg, but no one over 16.7ppg. But Denver was also the highest scoring team in the league. So probably not realistic to set the bar that high. It just means a couple of our guys personal number will dip or not live up to projections..
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