quote:
I think what you are missing is that people are saying Tesla as a stock is terrible, not as a company. The expectations based on stock prices just are unrealistic unless they start having a dominate market share

No no, I understand. These guys are evaluating Tesla as if it's an established auto maker already, rather than as the growth stock that it is. What companies can Tesla be compared to? How many 10 year old car companies are there? How many high volume electric car manufacturers are there? Tesla is probably better compared to Apple of 5 or 10 years ago, carving out a niche right now in preparation for being the dominant player in a huge market in the near future.

Unless you think gasoline will some day be cheap and plentiful, electric vehicles will steadily claim a larger and larger share of the market. And everything points to Tesla being the leader there. Being relatively small is an advantage right now, as Tesla has the luxury of being able to quickly iterate and refine their process, technologies and techniques. Their batteries are so good that Toyota buys them, and they are getting better all the time. They already have a small but expanding network of rapid charge stations. The next step is a network of quick change battery stations to make recharges faster than refuels. The fact that they are producing one of the highest rated vehicles of all time is almost an afterthought.

It's impossible to place a value on TSLA based on their current financials. It has to be evaluated based on future expectations.. you think they are unrealistic, I think they are conservative. Tesla is widening an already wide moat.

All that said, TSLA will probably lose about half of the recent gains and drop to $55 or so in the coming days or weeks before resuming the upward trajectory. I will stand by my projection of $150 by next May.

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Posted by Vols&Shaft83

Throbbing Member

Member since Dec 2012

69956 posts

Posted on 5/11/13 at 10:21 am to Korkstand

Tesla would have been dead years ago if they hadn't received $450 Million in federal aid. Tesla has lost $750 Million since its inception (That's not a horse I'll bet on).

The first electric car was in 1912 and the first hybrid came along in 1917. They were popular with women because driving an electric car required no cranking to start the engine. When electric starters came along, women abandoned electric.... The issues with electric cars is battery efficiency and replacement costs of batteries. Add a lacking of any real charger infrastructure and long waits for recharging, and you can see these too as reasons for electric car failure. The US Navy has spent billions of dollars since WWII desperately trying to find a state-of-the-art breakthrough in battery efficiency and they have come up a loser.

Tesla isn't going to build a mass-market car with good range until the batteries that will permit it to happen come into being. I'm fully aware that that's the third stage of Elon's plan, but it ain't gonna happen until the technology is there to make it happen. And Tesla can't do that on their own.

And what's more, once those batteries are on the market, Tesla isn't going to be the only company using them, and Tesla's future competitors have some HUGE advantages, namely that they're global automakers with huge R&D budgets and massive scale.

Tesla stock, obscenely overvalued, I stand by my opinion of SELL SELL SELL.

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Posted by slackster