re: Tesla - Buy or Sell?

quote:

---

I think what you are missing is that people are saying Tesla as a stock is terrible, not as a company. The expectations based on stock prices just are unrealistic unless they start having a dominate market share

---

No no, I understand. These guys are evaluating Tesla as if it's an established auto maker already, rather than as the growth stock that it is. What companies can Tesla be compared to? How many 10 year old car companies are there? How many high volume electric car manufacturers are there? Tesla is probably better compared to Apple of 5 or 10 years ago, carving out a niche right now in preparation for being the dominant player in a huge market in the near future.

Unless you think gasoline will some day be cheap and plentiful, electric vehicles will steadily claim a larger and larger share of the market. And everything points to Tesla being the leader there. Being relatively small is an advantage right now, as Tesla has the luxury of being able to quickly iterate and refine their process, technologies and techniques. Their batteries are so good that Toyota buys them, and they are getting better all the time. They already have a small but expanding network of rapid charge stations. The next step is a network of quick change battery stations to make recharges faster than refuels. The fact that they are producing one of the highest rated vehicles of all time is almost an afterthought.

It's impossible to place a value on TSLA based on their current financials. It has to be evaluated based on future expectations.. you think they are unrealistic, I think they are conservative. Tesla is widening an already wide moat.

All that said, TSLA will probably lose about half of the recent gains and drop to $55 or so in the coming days or weeks before resuming the upward trajectory. I will stand by my projection of $150 by next May.