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Message
1
Posted on 4/25/13 at 4:38 pm to WikiTiger
Chained CPI makes adjustments for market shifts. Like consumers moving away from trucks and SUVs to move to smaller fuel economy cars because of the price of either the vehicles or gasoline. Come on man.
ETA: And I realize they are both autos but you get the point.
ETA: And I realize they are both autos but you get the point.
This post was edited on 4/25/13 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 4/25/13 at 4:40 pm to WikiTiger
quote:
et you make me out to be a kook for that.
No, I'm not trying to make you out to be a kook. I'm just saying what you want will not be achieved by how you want to get there.
quote:
"Official" inflation figures are blatant lies. Real inflation is somewhere like 8-12%.
I know very well the underlying assumptions of hedonics regressions and substitution mechansims for CPI, and I'm guessing your 8-12% inflation figure came from John Williams' SGS figure. Milton was talking about '06 ways to measure inflation, not '80. If Milton had his way that SGS figure would be much higher, so your argument still doesn't really argue anything.
This post was edited on 4/25/13 at 4:42 pm
Posted on 4/25/13 at 4:42 pm to WikiTiger
quote:
"Official" inflation figures are blatant lies. Real inflation is somewhere like 8-12%.
Holy shite. In that case I'm assuming you're leveraged up to your eyeballs with all the free money banks are giving away. Posted on 4/25/13 at 4:44 pm to Cold Cous Cous
quote:
Holy shite. In that case I'm assuming you're leveraged up to your eyeballs with all the free money banks are giving away.
So basically only credit card companies are making money.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 4:45 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:
BennyAndTheInkJets
I'm really liking this guy
Posted on 4/25/13 at 4:45 pm to WikiTiger
And on the BLS site you linked, I saw a y/y CPI of 1.5%, with a core CPI of 1.9%.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 4:46 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:
and I'm guessing your 8-12% inflation figure came from John Williams' SGS figure
yep
Just so we're clear: Do you think the official inflation rates put out by the government are accurate? If not, what do you think the real inflation rate is?
Posted on 4/25/13 at 4:50 pm to WikiTiger
If we're looking at 8-12% inflation, what (excluding food & fuel) has doubled in price since the 2004-2007 time frame?
Posted on 4/25/13 at 4:51 pm to OFWHAP
quote:
(excluding food & fuel)
WTF? Why exclude two of the items that people buy most?
link fwiw: https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
This post was edited on 4/25/13 at 4:55 pm
Posted on 4/25/13 at 4:54 pm to WikiTiger
quote:
Do you think the official inflation rates put out by the government are accurate?
Absolutely not, just the same as GDP isn't either. They work hedonics regressions one way for CPI and the opposite way for GDP. I understand their reasoning for this but its still bullshite, just the same as the birth/death adjustment for NFP figures are bullshite. They do it to lower TIPS and entitlement payments while overstating GDP so the population feels good. However, don't get any belief that Williams' SGS figure is somehow "better", it takes into account several things that have no business being measured in inflation.
quote:
If not, what do you think the real inflation rate is?
Williams' SGS figure is as good to follow as CPI, CPI-U, Chained CPI, etc.. Each have their flaws but the general direction and levels of them should all be followed in tandem. Never point at one statistic and call it a day.
My belief for the best way to truly measure inflation? Keep track of your own expenses and see how similar items change month to month.
quote:
WTF? Why exclude two of the items that people use most?
Their reasoning is those are the two most volatile items you can have and energy has massive speculative influences. See above, never look at one point of data and call it a day.
This post was edited on 4/25/13 at 4:56 pm
Posted on 4/25/13 at 4:58 pm to WikiTiger
Because they're much more volatile and have price movements that are affected by many more factors than other goods and services. Oh and for the previous twelve months, CPI including food/fuel was less than CPI excluding food/fuel.
So if Russia and Saudi Arabia decided to shut off oil production capacity, while home-grown terrorists decide to sabotage the wheat fields in the Midwest, are we going to blame the Fed for runaway inflation in food/fuel?
So if Russia and Saudi Arabia decided to shut off oil production capacity, while home-grown terrorists decide to sabotage the wheat fields in the Midwest, are we going to blame the Fed for runaway inflation in food/fuel?
Posted on 4/25/13 at 4:59 pm to OFWHAP
quote:
So if Russia and Saudi Arabia decided to shut off oil production capacity, while home-grown terrorists decide to sabotage the wheat fields in the Midwest, are we going to blame the Fed for runaway inflation in food/fuel?
That's pretty good.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 5:33 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
Posted on 4/25/13 at 5:36 pm to OFWHAP
quote:
Because they're much more volatile and have price movements that are affected by many more factors than other goods and services
so you just discount them altogether? that seems counterproductive
quote:
So if Russia and Saudi Arabia decided to shut off oil production capacity, while home-grown terrorists decide to sabotage the wheat fields in the Midwest, are we going to blame the Fed for runaway inflation in food/fuel?
Has that happened recently? If it does, then include it in inflation calculations. But until it does, don't.
The exclusion of food and fuel is a convenient way to simply hide actual inflation. That's all. Yes, I know, I'm a kook.
quote:
Oh and for the previous twelve months, CPI including food/fuel was less than CPI excluding food/fuel.
OK. 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? the next 5 years? the next 10 years?
The argument was that inflation is higher than the government says it is. I put faith in the SGS stats. Benny doesn't. But he also doesn't believe the official stats either.
Do you?
If not, what do you think the actual inflation rate is?
Posted on 4/25/13 at 5:39 pm to WikiTiger
Ah, LIBOR. Please redirect yourself to
Little heads up, that article is very badly written in terms of presenting the facts of the LIBOR scandal. Even the ISDA portion of it is really badly represented.
quote:
All you know is an outside observation that completely misinterprets what happens and ignores other factors.
Little heads up, that article is very badly written in terms of presenting the facts of the LIBOR scandal. Even the ISDA portion of it is really badly represented.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 5:44 pm to WikiTiger
quote:
so you just discount them altogether? that seems counterproductive
That's why you look at several different statistics.
quote:
Has that happened recently? If it does, then include it in inflation calculations. But until it does, don't
Uhhh.... it's really, really hard to quantify a qualitative point.
quote:
The exclusion of food and fuel is a convenient way to simply hide actual inflation. That's all.
How about when food and energy prices go down like recently as was stated?
quote:
I put faith in the SGS stats. Benny doesn't. But he also doesn't believe the official stats either.
Not what I said. I said that you have to look at all figures in tandem, not just one figure which is what you're doing. Your out-of-context is showing, zip those perspective pants up, man.
Posted on 4/25/13 at 5:48 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:
Not what I said. I said that you have to look at all figures in tandem, not just one figure which is what you're doing. Your out-of-context is showing, zip those perspective pants up, man.
sigh.
you are becoming like LSURussian in your word games.
I asked: Do you think the official inflation rates put out by the government are accurate? If not, what do you think the real inflation rate is?
You, of course, didn't give me a straight answer for one thing. But you did at least say: Absolutely not
An answer of "absolutely not" means you don't believe the official stats. I don't know how you construe that to mean I'm taking it out of context.
Also, why won't you give me an answer as to what you think the real inflation rate is??
Posted on 4/25/13 at 6:09 pm to WikiTiger
I have no clue what the real inflation rate is, and neither does anyone else. It's almost impossible to figure out, as each and every person has a different bundle of goods/services that he consumes. However I can assure you I have not personally witnessed a price increase of anything at an average rate of 8-12% over the previous decade or so with the exception of food and fuel, both of which have moved up and down quite substantially.
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