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re: I'm seeing a bargain with this stock, what am I missing?

Posted on 4/5/13 at 1:45 pm to
Posted by OnTheBrink
TN
Member since Mar 2012
5418 posts
Posted on 4/5/13 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

If it doesn't hit $9/share, you lose the $4 on the contracts


So, how do you make money then? And I realize AA is probably a poor example as there seems to be little volatility.

Let's say I bought these contracts today at 0.04, $4. On April 19th, after a strong earning report Monday and a good forecast, AA has been moving up and rest at $8.90/share. Would the cost of my contracts then be worth more? Maybe 0.10?

I don't know, as Russian said, if you think it is going to be at $9 in 15 days, why not buy the shares outright. Seems like a lot of work for minimal gains.
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27832 posts
Posted on 4/5/13 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

So, how do you make money then?


The price has to go above the strike price. Again it give you the option to buy $9 no matter what the price is. So if it goes to $100, you only have to pay $9. You can then sell the share for $100 making $91.
This post was edited on 4/5/13 at 1:51 pm
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126966 posts
Posted on 4/5/13 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

Would the cost of my contracts then be worth more? Maybe 0.10?

Yes, but probably more like $.06-$.08 since there is only one day left before the option expires and AA is, as you said, not very volatile.

With AA's lack of volatility, at $8.90/share in your example on April 19, there is only one day left for it to exceed $9/share.

If you want to see volatility in option prices, load AAPL into your options' screen. AAPL option prices will move $10 to $15 per share/contract on a big movement day for Apple.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126966 posts
Posted on 4/5/13 at 2:20 pm to
quote:

I don't know, as Russian said, if you think it is going to be at $9 in 15 days, why not buy the shares outright. Seems like a lot of work for minimal gains.

Options are a way of making a very healthy % return using very little money.

If an investor buys 10 contracts for $40.00 ($.04 X 1,000 shares) and IF the price of AA went to, say, $9.15 before the expiration date, the option that the investor paid $40.00 for could probably be sold for something like $0.85/contract or $850 ($.85 X 1,000 shares) for a profit of $810 ($850 minus the $40 he paid for the option). This ignores the small amount of possible brokerage fees the investor would pay.

So for an investment of $40 the option buyer makes a return of over 2,000% in 15 days.

Of course, the chance that the price of AA going to $9.15 is very low and if it doesn't the investor loses 100% of his $40 investment.

ETA: serious brain fart on my part. The options would not increase to .85 but to probably only around .13 if the price went to $9.15 just prior to expiration. Still it would be a very nice % return on a small investment.
This post was edited on 4/6/13 at 8:04 am
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