Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem. - Page 2 - TigerDroppings.com

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TigerDeacon
Wake Forest Fan
West Monroe, LA
Member since Sep 2003
24462 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


quote:

I still don't get how it increases your odds to switch.


Look at it this way.

You have three doors to choose from. You can either choose to pick one door (choose one and stick with it) or you can choose to pick 2 (choose a door and then switch). If you pick 2, you know one door has to be wrong but the other day may be right.

Alternatively, imagine that you are competing against someone. You get to pick one door while he gets the remaining two. Which person would you rather be?






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junkfunky
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
14138 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


quote:

And as someone said above, it only works if the host knows what is behind each door and intentionally opens the door with a goat


So why doesn't Monty ever open the door with the car?






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Dooshay
LSU Fan
CEBA
Member since Jun 2011
29265 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


Because the game would be over.

Even if you lose when swapping it's more appealing and exciting to have taken the chance.



This post was edited on 3/6 at 11:58 am


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OneMoreTime
SMU Fan
Florida Gulf Coast Fan
Member since Dec 2008
47521 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


You are so alone.





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Dan
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Dec 2006
2187 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


I was getting pissed off but finally understand the logic behind the switch after watching the video.





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Dooshay
LSU Fan
CEBA
Member since Jun 2011
29265 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


Im just really smart bro





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Dooshay
LSU Fan
CEBA
Member since Jun 2011
29265 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


Yeah the video definitely explains it.





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OneMoreTime
SMU Fan
Florida Gulf Coast Fan
Member since Dec 2008
47521 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


psh





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Dan
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Dec 2006
2187 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


Basically the piece the sold me was:

If your first choice happens to be a goat, then swapping yields a car every time. Since the chances of you picking a goat first are greater than not (66% to 33%), you must swap that shite every time bruh






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junkfunky
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
14138 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


quote:

Because the game would be over.


Right, so that fricker knows what's behind what doors. He is trying to goad you into switching.

quote:

Even if you lose when swapping it's more appealing and exciting to have taken the chance.


Of course, it's tv and it's all staged to provide the most entertainment. The laws of statistics aren't an end all for playing the game.

I'm a very analytically person but I also pay close attention to the psychology/sociology when it applies.






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threeputt
Notre Dame Fan
God's Country
Member since Sep 2008
21743 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


Anybody wants to take a shot at this again four years later

quote:

There was a thread of a guy from deal or no deal posted earlier that has caused a furry in the office today. For those who did not see the video - The guy had two boxes left (the one he originally picked and one on the floor)and the amounts in play were $1 and $1,000,000. He did not take the offer and his box had the $1. The basic question is what where is odds that his case had the million at this point in the game. I say he had a 3.8 % chance his case had the million. EVERYONE else that I talk to says he had a 50% chance of holding a million. Who is right???






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Cap Crunch
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Dec 2010
35702 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


I think that is a different scenario. What makes the Monty problem different is that he knows what is behind each door and intentionally reveals a goat

In the deal or no deal scenario, the guy who is choosing what cases to open has no idea what is in each case

My best guess is that it'd be down to 50/50 at that point






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CarRamrod
USA Fan
Spurbury, VT
Member since Dec 2006
34924 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


quote:

Youtube explanation

Kind of makes sense now

See i think it is bull shite. It is like if you look up at the roulette board and see a bunch of red number in a row. That makes you want to chose Black when actually the odds for black and white are the still the same no matter how many times read or black was chosen prior.






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threeputt
Notre Dame Fan
God's Country
Member since Sep 2008
21743 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


After 27 pages from that thread, you are correct... I think


My point was that you make an initial selection and you have basically two groups ., group 1 - the box you picked and group 2 - the boxes that were not picked ... And the odds of you having the million (group 1) are 1/26 while the odd of the other boxes having the million (group 2) are 25/26 ..


Any who it's an I teresting read and I learned some things as my mind and answers went back and forth






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Cap Crunch
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Dec 2010
35702 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


Hmm that seems to make sense too.

And actually the more that I think about it, it doesn't matter if Monty knows what's behind each door, as long as there is a goat behind it






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threeputt
Notre Dame Fan
God's Country
Member since Sep 2008
21743 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


It does actually matter .. Check out this link and read the middle part with the made up roulette wheels to simulate the game ..

LINK






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Cap Crunch
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Dec 2010
35702 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


I'll check it out later. Gotta study statistics stuff that's actually gonna be on my test tonight

Might restart you thread tonight too






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supadave3
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2005
15848 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


After watching the youtube video, I guess I understand. It still kinda baffles me though.





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CarRamrod
USA Fan
Spurbury, VT
Member since Dec 2006
34924 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


this only holds water if the announcer knows which one and always opens a goat door.





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castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
26316 posts

re: Computer Simulations from yesterday's Let's Make a Deal problem.


Dp


This post was edited on 3/6 at 12:43 pm


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