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re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW
Posted on 1/28/13 at 9:27 pm to BGUT
Posted on 1/28/13 at 9:27 pm to BGUT
Part 3
The Importance of Locals
Every town in America has a “local guy”. For those that are outside the US, there are all kinds of casinos that offer lines of credit. Unless you’re in Vegas, that’s not currently possible for sports betting (and frankly I’ve never investigated getting a marker for sports in Vegas, but I assume it would be no different than a marker for blackjack or craps).
Finding a local can sometimes be a challenge, but they’re definitely out there. If you can find a local poker game, you can likely find a “local guy”.
The beautiful thing of the modern day local is that more and more they’re using websites. This works wonderfully, especially for things like futures. If you bet team season win totals with a local, you’re completely taking the time value of money factor out of the equation (which is a popular argument against futures).
The reality it’s possible that you could open an account with a local, never give him a dime, and just collect from him. It’s like having a credit card where you never have to pay the bill but get all of the rewards points and cash back.
Most importantly…use locals responsibly. I think these folks are doing a public service and most that I know are genuinely good people. While most guys don’t break legs and beat you up anymore, they will show up at your work if you avoid them (I’ve seen it happen) and make your life very uncomfortable. Make sure you have the money to pay them. I don’t recommend using one until you do.
The Importance of Locals
Every town in America has a “local guy”. For those that are outside the US, there are all kinds of casinos that offer lines of credit. Unless you’re in Vegas, that’s not currently possible for sports betting (and frankly I’ve never investigated getting a marker for sports in Vegas, but I assume it would be no different than a marker for blackjack or craps).
Finding a local can sometimes be a challenge, but they’re definitely out there. If you can find a local poker game, you can likely find a “local guy”.
The beautiful thing of the modern day local is that more and more they’re using websites. This works wonderfully, especially for things like futures. If you bet team season win totals with a local, you’re completely taking the time value of money factor out of the equation (which is a popular argument against futures).
The reality it’s possible that you could open an account with a local, never give him a dime, and just collect from him. It’s like having a credit card where you never have to pay the bill but get all of the rewards points and cash back.
Most importantly…use locals responsibly. I think these folks are doing a public service and most that I know are genuinely good people. While most guys don’t break legs and beat you up anymore, they will show up at your work if you avoid them (I’ve seen it happen) and make your life very uncomfortable. Make sure you have the money to pay them. I don’t recommend using one until you do.
1
Posted on 1/28/13 at 9:28 pm to BGUT
FINAL Part 4
Why Volume Matters
Quick math quiz:
You bet 10 games/month at $100/game. You win 60%.
Win $600 – Loss $440 (loss plus juice) = $160 net win
You bet 100 games/month at $100/game. You win 55%.
Win $5500 – Loss $4950 (loss plus juice) = $550 net win
While 100 games/month seems like a lot, it’s really only 3.3 games/day or 25/week. That’s pretty standard volume if you follow us here.
If you’re a winning better, it’s about grinding out wins through volume, not chasing unrealistic win rates. Professional poker players can almost always tell you their hourly win rate at a particular game ($2/5 NL, etc). They want to get as much time as possible in games that they feel they have an edge. Playing many games when you’re a +EV bettor is no different. Sure, there are times when it’s best to pass. But if you’re a +EV bettor, volume is your friend.
Why Volume Matters
Quick math quiz:
You bet 10 games/month at $100/game. You win 60%.
Win $600 – Loss $440 (loss plus juice) = $160 net win
You bet 100 games/month at $100/game. You win 55%.
Win $5500 – Loss $4950 (loss plus juice) = $550 net win
While 100 games/month seems like a lot, it’s really only 3.3 games/day or 25/week. That’s pretty standard volume if you follow us here.
If you’re a winning better, it’s about grinding out wins through volume, not chasing unrealistic win rates. Professional poker players can almost always tell you their hourly win rate at a particular game ($2/5 NL, etc). They want to get as much time as possible in games that they feel they have an edge. Playing many games when you’re a +EV bettor is no different. Sure, there are times when it’s best to pass. But if you’re a +EV bettor, volume is your friend.
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