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re: "Offense is the problem"

Posted on 1/15/13 at 4:33 pm to
Posted by ForeLSU
The Corner of Sanity and Madness
Member since Sep 2003
41525 posts
Posted on 1/15/13 at 4:33 pm to
quote:

ETA: typo, average starting field position was just past the 42 yard line

2011: LSU ranked 13th in the country for best starting field position on drives ending in touchdowns (22nd on all drives)

2006: LSU ranked 66th in the country for best starting field position on drives ending in touchdowns (90th on all drives)


ok, I imported the drive data from CFB into mysql and ran the queries. Let's dig a little deeper...

First of all, your rankings are skewed because the data contained FCS/Other division teams who probably only had 1 game worth of data in the record set. For example, ranked first based on average starting spot in 2006 is Wofford, with 1 game in the dataset.

Second, using actual starting position for all drives, the following data was returned from the query...

2006 - 69.357 / 30.6 yard line
2011 - 66.392 / 33.6 yard line

Where drives end in touchdown, drive length / starting spot

2006 - 61.682 / 38.3 yard line
2011 - 57.857 / 42.1 yard line

So we have a 3 yard difference in overall starting position, and a 3.8 yard difference in TD drive starting position. Not much of a story here...

This database is cool, thanks unknown for the info on this...digging a little deeper into the 3 yard difference in 06 and 11. In 2011, kickoffs were from the 30, in 2006 they were from the 35. This had the following impact...

Touchbacks on Kickoffs
2006 - 19
2011 - 6

Avg Starting Position After Kickoff
2006 - 22.1
2011 - 25

Hmm, basically a 3 yard difference. In looking at drives starting inside the 20...

2006 - 56 drives, 11 TD's, 19.64%
2011 - 46 drives, 9 TD's, 19.57%

adding Field Goals
2006 - 6 fgs, 30.36% Scoring
2011 - 3 fgs, 26% Scoring
This post was edited on 1/15/13 at 6:46 pm
Posted by Commando
Never Never Land
Member since Jan 2009
2810 posts
Posted on 1/15/13 at 4:35 pm to
quote:

Not much of a story here...


Other than in 2006 we had the #1 overall NFL pick playing QB and in 2011, we had the circus still in town.
Posted by theunknownknight
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
57429 posts
Posted on 1/15/13 at 7:08 pm to
2006 we averaged 6.6 yards per play on offense. 7th in the country.

2011 we averaged around ~5.6 yards per play lower than 50th in the country.

So there is one mighty big difference there. And to say 3 yards difference in starting field position is not a big deal is misleading. Especially when those three yards mean you are top 10 ranked or 70th ranked in the country.
Posted by ForeLSU
The Corner of Sanity and Madness
Member since Sep 2003
41525 posts
Posted on 1/15/13 at 7:09 pm to
a couple more data points....

no doubt 2011 had more opportunities from close in. Here are possessions starting at the 50 or closer....

2006 - 21 drives, 12 tds, 2 fgs (67% scoring)
2011 - 34 drives, 19 tds, 6 fgs (73.5% scoring)

On the other hand...punting and 3-outs

2006 - 39 punts / 23 3-outs
2011 - 67 punts / 37 3-outs

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