re: SBL 2013 Spring Training (Keepers 3/17, Slow Draft to follow)

Karabell's top 10 hitters

1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
He wouldn't be in this spot if I thought he was going to steal "only" 30 bases. Anyone else remember those incredible Eric Davis seasons, including the one with 27 home runs and 80 stolen bases, and another with 37 homers and 50 steals? Wouldn't it be awesome if Trout, even sacrificing some batting average, did that? Frankly, Trout doesn't need to contend for a batting title to earn this top spot.



2. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Braun was my top choice this time last year, and people thought I was nuts, citing a certain scandal and trying to glean how it would torch Braun's stats. I don't think people are concerned anymore. Look, I'm fine with Cabrera, too, and the third base eligibility is nice, but when you lock up a big power/speed guy early, it changes the rest of your draft.



3. Miguel Cabrera, 3BDetroit Tigers
Cabrera hit 44 home runs with 139 RBIs and 4 steals in 2012. From 2009 to 2011, he averaged 34 home runs, 111 RBIs and 4 steals from 2009 to 2011, and in 2011 he finished seventh on the Player Rater. Yeah, I know, he didn't have Prince Fielder batting behind him then, and now he does, but there could be regression coming here as well.



4. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
The mild concern with McCutchen is that his batting average (.327 in 2012) will take a hit and that his terrible stolen base percentage -- he was 20-for-32 on steal attempts -- will result in fewer tries, but since I can't be sure the next guy will be healthy (or stay that way), McCutchen checks in at No. 4.



5. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
The first four guys just seem more reliable, even a guy entering his second full season (Trout). Kemp dealt with injuries for the first time in 2012, and it shortened his season and impacted his swing as well as his ability to run. Offseason shoulder surgery is not expected to linger into this season, and certainly he's a potential 30-homer/30-steal guy, though I'd bet it'll be more like 35/25.



6. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
No middle infielder can be counted on to play every day, hit for power and bat .300 every season, except this one. In this case, the reliability -- he finished 17th overall on the Player Rater in 2012 and 18th in 2011 -- from such a miserable fantasy position trumps the relative lack of stolen bases.



7. Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels
I don't think it's living in the past to continue believing in this guy. His 2012 season was the worst of his career, and it still netted 30 home runs, 105 RBIs, eight steals and a .285 batting average. And his April was abysmal (.217, 0 HR, 4 RBI). If you believe in lineup protection, which I usually don't put much stock in, then the Josh Hamilton addition should vault Pujols, as it did for Cabrera. Ultimately, this remains the safest first baseman in the game, and he's not too old to get back to producing MVP-type stats.



8. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
I realize this choice goes against the grain, so to speak -- my wise colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft ranks Tulowitzki third at his position and 37th overall -- but a year ago, Tulo was the sixth pick in ESPN live drafts (ADP). He battled injuries in 2012, but I don't see why he can't go right back to hitting .300 with 30 home runs. How many shortstops can do this? Tulo's durability is a concern, of course, but from 2009 to 2011, in an average of 139 games per season, he averaged 30 home runs, 97 RBIs and a .304 batting average. I'm still buying, obviously.



9. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies
Yes, I'm buying on Tulo's teammate as well. Who cares if a major portion of his numbers came in home games? That might be an issue in head-to-head formats, but not in standard leagues. His line the past three seasons: .313, 27 home runs, 98 RBIs, 22 steals. That works just fine for me.



10. Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Bautista beats out Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Buster Posey and Justin Verlander, names you'll found in other top-10 rankings, because, as with Tulo, I don't see why Joey Bats can't lead the majors in home runs again, just as he did in 2010 and 2011. Word is he's healthy again, and there was little wrong with his power and plate discipline last season. Might he hit .250? Perhaps, but he might also hit 50 home runs. I'm expecting 40 blasts and a .280 batting average.