quote:
You can't look at the turnover margin of that game and label it an outlier. LSU's defense is an opportunistic one. It was designed to let players play a little undisciplined and to roam around with the expectation that they will get turnovers. It is not like Bama's defense which is more about discipline and more lock down.

I don't know who said that Miles is forever superior to Kelly but as far as accomplishments go, Miles has a more impressive resume. He has a national championship ring and a very good winning percentage against much stiffer competition.

Turnover margin is incredibly volatile year to year and has much less to do with coaching than with individual players and sheer luck.

Over the past 4 years (since chavis started) we've had TO margins of 16, 20, 8, and 4. Going back further we had 20 again in 2007, but -1 in 2008. Compounding that is that an opportunistic defense can cause interceptions but it's basically impossible to reliably cause fumbles OR to reliably recover fumbles but LSU caused and recovered 3 fumbles against Oregon. It was a combination of a ball hawking defense, particularly Matheiu, Oregon playing a freshman in his first game ever, and just plain bad luck for Oregon. But if it was really a coachable trait to cause and recover fumbles the numbers would be a lot more consistent year over year.

Miles has also been coaching for about 3 times as long as Kelly and came into a program that had JUST won a national championship. When Kelly started at Oregon their last Rose Bowl win was 1917 and their last Rose bowl appearance was 1995. Since getting to Oregon they have gone to 4 BCS bowls in a row, won the Rose bowl, competed in another Rose bowl, played for a national championship, and have a combined record of 46-7. That's REALLY fricking impressive no matter how much you try to pull the "SEC is too tough and blah blah" bullshite.

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Posted by coldhotwings

Mississippi

Member since Jan 2008

6497 posts

Posted on 1/4/13 at 2:08 am to nf

quote:
Turnover margin is incredibly volatile year to year and has much less to do with coaching than with individual players and sheer luck.

Over the past 4 years (since chavis started) we've had TO margins of 16, 20, 8, and 4. Going back further we had 20 again in 2007, but -1 in 2008. Compounding that is that an opportunistic defense can cause interceptions but it's basically impossible to reliably cause fumbles OR to reliably recover fumbles but LSU caused and recovered 3 fumbles against Oregon. It was a combination of a ball hawking defense, particularly Matheiu, Oregon playing a freshman in his first game ever, and just plain bad luck for Oregon. But if it was really a coachable trait to cause and recover fumbles the numbers would be a lot more consistent year over year.

It's volatile depending on the type of offenses faced and the personnel playing that year. In that game and throughout most of last season, Chavis was comfortable in surrendering a lot of yards as long as they lock it down in the red zone and force turnovers. The decision to let Mathieu ball-hawk instead of being told where to go and how to cover is a coaching one. You think that Darron Thomas, L. James, or Deanthony Thomas gave up those turnovers unforced? Yes, there is luck involved but you have to admit that the play-calling and training is what increased the probability that these turnovers will happen.

quote:
Miles has also been coaching for about 3 times as long as Kelly and came into a program that had JUST won a national championship. When Kelly started at Oregon their last Rose Bowl win was 1917 and their last Rose bowl appearance was 1995. Since getting to Oregon they have gone to 4 BCS bowls in a row, won the Rose bowl, competed in another Rose bowl, played for a national championship, and have a combined record of 46-7. That's REALLY fricking impressive no matter how much you try to pull the "SEC is too tough and blah blah" bullshite.

Kyle Wittingham and Gary Patterson have impressive win records until they faced a higher level of competition. Frank Beamer had a long streak of dominance over the ACC. You don't think level of competition factors in? You think Kelly would own the Pac-12 if Stanford, USC, ASU, and UCLA was swapped out for LSU, Bama, UGA, and Florida? Bob Stoops owns the Big 12. You think he does the same in the SEC?

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Posted by PrimeTime Money

Houston, Texas, USA

Member since Nov 2012

27327 posts

Posted on 1/4/13 at 2:12 am to nf

Why would you talk about turnover margin when the point of discussion is turnovers? Not the difference between turnovers gained and turnovers lost.

The person disagreeing with you was saying that LSU scored so much due to the turnovers they gained. They said nothing about giving the other team points due to turning the ball over.

Some years the turnover margin may be smaller due to the offense turning the ball over more.

Your point about Chavis would only make sense if you were talking about forced turnovers through the years... not the difference between those forced turnovers and the turnovers LSU gave up.

This post was edited on 1/4/13 at 2:15 am

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Posted by PRK

Member since Sep 2009

9142 posts

Posted on 1/4/13 at 9:21 am to nf

quote:
Since getting to Oregon they have gone to 4 BCS bowls in a row, won the Rose bowl, competed in another Rose bowl, played for a national championship, and have a combined record of 46-7. That's REALLY fricking impressive no matter how much you try to pull the "SEC is too tough and blah blah" bullshite.

Name the other good teams in the PAC while Kelly has been at Oregon. Stanford? He caught the tail-end of USC greatness. He's had some pretty advantageous circumstances sending him to BCS games every year.

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