re: Various Financial Questions

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The big theme I've ran into with these papers is that valuations trumps growth. If you believe stocks are still undervalued right now I completely understand your view, I just think they're slightly overvalued and slowing growth will cause people to sell if they believe equities are overvalued. Regardless, hopefully we both live to see 12/31/2017 so see which one of us is right.

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Equities may be fairly valued, or under/over, I'm agnostic. Companies issuing noninvestment grade bonds must be laughing at their cost of debt issuance compared to past years. I still like emerging markets equity but not increasing my holdings. After running up to roughly 70% equity near the end of 2008 and early 2009 I am back to 35% of which roughly a quarter is international. Also have roughly 10% of NW in investment RE. In addition to TIPS I have a significant amount in EE and I bonds, the EE's are going to start causing some significant tax payments in roughly 5-yrs and out when they start maturing, but the 4% guaranteed rate these days looks better than anything else out there with no risk.

I was not talking about exotic/levered or inverse ETFs but those that are broad market based equity or segments/sectors of such. Like substituting DEM for VWO to reduce emerging market equity volatility, or using ETF class instead of open end funds to reduce upfront costs and expense ratios, which can be significant savings over time with a large portfolio. Once upon a time I made some significant cabbage in PCRIX and sold it in 2008, which was my last exposure to commodities other than gold and silver bought in the past.