sure. Some players age well. It happens. No one says it doesn't. I'm talking about on average, so instead of taking the cherry picked best examples, I looked at the top five producers in 2006 and see how they did the last five seasons (2007-2012). Your argument was that more recent players don't have the same decline as players from the 80s or 90s. So I tested that theory against the most recently completed 5-season timeperiod.

quote:
You come up with a group of players based off how well they play in one particular season.

that was the article's thesis. It works for any season. The article used 1988 (and also used WAR, I changed it to OPS+ due to my dislike of WAR). You argued against that thesis saying recent times have changed that due to advances in health and nutrition. So I used 2006, the most recent year we could use and have a full five-year lookback.

And the theory held.

quote:
Did the fact Emil brown and Gary Matthews on your list not say "wait, this isn't going to make much sense."

No, it rather supported my theory that players decline faster than we like to think. The fact Emil Brown was in the top five Age 31 players in 2006 shows how quickly players age. We scrape the barrel pretty quickly. Though I did use six players in the Age 32 group, mainly so I could throw out Emil and use Damon. But I included Emil Brown as part of the study in the interest of both honesty and completeness.

I'm not cherry picking data. I honestly didn't know what it would say. To be honest, I expected some players to improve. I was honestly surprised ALL declined.

And guy like Abreu, Damon, and Nomar WERE great players. Are we arguing that the age 32 group there isn't full of great players. Todd Helton wasn't great?

This rather supports another on of my pet theories: I hate when people knock players for being "mere compilers". It's really HARD to be a compiler. It's tough to continue to be good enough to hang on and keep a starting job and keep producing in your mid to late 30s. Only truly great players can usually do it.

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Posted by stapuffmarshy

lower 9

Member since Apr 2010

17507 posts

Posted on 12/19/12 at 1:34 pm to Baloo

here are the facts:

compare anyone to anyone, doesn't matter. the 2 vets will or won't produce for the full 5 years. NONE of you know for sure either way so the stats about what happened to others their age is ridiculous

Hosmer may or may not have a better 5 years than both or won't. Again, none of us really know

so if you are legit, you take the two vets and hope it pays off

anyone saying otherwise is too far in their own head- FACT

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Posted by Baloo

Formerly MDGeaux

Member since Sep 2003

49645 posts

Posted on 12/19/12 at 1:36 pm to Baloo

The other theory was that the young players would get real good real quick. So let's look at Poz's standards: 22 or under with at least 10 HR (showing some promise at the MLB level). In 2006, seven players met that criteria, all of whom were 22 except Zimmerman, who was 21:

Under 23, 10 HR
Zimmerman 287/351/471 114
Fielder 271/347/483 110
Francoeur 260/293/449 87
J Lopez 282/319/405 89
Markakis 291/351/448 106
McCann 333/388/572 143
Ramirez 292/353/480 116

Aside from McCann and probably Hanley, no one was at an All-Star level quite yet. Jose Lopez barely makes the list at 10 HR, but it was pretty clear from those numbers he wasn't much of a hitter. A 319 OBP ain't promising, and Francoeur's 293 OBP was hideous.

Next 5 Years
Zimmerman 286/353/479 121
Fielder 289/401/549 151
Francoeur 265/311/412 93
J Lopez 260/290/396 85
Markakis 296/367/456 119
McCann 271/346/464 115
Ramirez 300/375/499 130

Fielder, of course, blossomed into one of the best players in baseball. So did Henley. Zimmerman didn't make a great leap forward, but he did improve his numbers to an All-Star level. Markakis also failed to make The Leap, but he did make solid improvement into a borderline All-Star player. Francoeur only slightly improved, and Lopez is the only player to decline (well, and McCann, who declined from that insane 143 OPS+). They remained bad players, mainly due to their inability to get on base. So, players with 10 HR and under age 23 would outperform their 31-32 year old counterparts, and they would have crushed them had our imaginary front office made a caveat for terrible OBP's. Poz didn't make that caveat, but I think it's a big deal -- guys who can't get on base will not live up to their promise.

Anyway, in 2006, it was a better bet to go with the under 23 crowd than it was to take the entire top 10 of age 31 and age 32 players. Well, except Vlad.

God, I love Vlad.

This post was edited on 12/19/12 at 1:38 pm

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Posted by Lester Earl

Member since Nov 2003

278674 posts

Posted on 12/19/12 at 1:52 pm to Baloo

quote:
, I looked at the top five producers in 2006 and see how they did the last five seasons (2007-2012). Your argument was that more recent players don't have the same decline as players from the 80s or 90s. So I tested that theory against the most recently completed 5-season timeperiod.

my point is you cant just look at one season, see how they did for that one season, and them compare it to the next 5 seasons.

That's why I used their career averages when I posted the players I did.

And i didn't really cherry pick the players i brought up. I thought of players that mostly played in the AL at a corner position, benefited from the DH as they got older, and who were great sluggers. Honestly I stopped looking after these guys because I couldn't find anyone that slipped dramatically.

quote:
that was the article's thesis. It works for any season. The article used 1988 (and also used WAR, I changed it to OPS+ due to my dislike of WAR). You argued against that thesis saying recent times have changed that due to advances in health and nutrition. So I used 2006, the most recent year we could use and have a full five-year lookback.

And the theory held.

The theory held because it was cherry picked data that inclines a significant drop in most players.

The original data of 32/33 year old guys comes out with Sosa and Bret Boone, but in the middle of their ginormous steroid seasons(both career years)

if fishes out Lonnie Smith, who at age 33 had his best year of his career BY FAR.

it features Joe MOrgan a light hitting second baseman. i wont even get into him

And then George Brett....which in the paragraph they write about him, sneakily add in the last line "who won a battling title and made 4 all star games after age 32"

honestly that is not a good way to come up with examples.... Unless you are predetermined to predict failure for the Angels & Pujols/Hamilton.

quote:
The fact Emil Brown was in the top five Age 31 players in 2006 shows how quickly players age. We scrape the barrel pretty quickly

it doesn't mean anything, actually.

Wait, it does mean something actually. It tells me that in this season, there were no good players at age 31, or that there were some, and they were hurt.

Why? Because his monstorous 109OPS+ pales in comparison to all the guys I just posted in the same age season. AGain, just making this list of players a complete joke and irrelevant to the type of guys we are talking about.

The age cycle isn't always going to be in line with every player.

Which is why if you actually look at my examples, you could see that. MVP caliber players. Corner position players/DH's. Huge power hitters. ie, the same mold as Hamilton and Pujols.

Why limit it to one specific season, when you can look at any player's season at the same age in any given year? And if they have actually played through age 36....Well by-golly!!! Look at that!!

^^^ That makes way too much sense. You can count back or forward 5 years with any player that has played enough seasons. it doesnt have to be, oh... 2002... or 2005.... or the year Emil Brown was top 5 in OPS+ of all players who happened to be 31 that specific year

quote:
And guy like Abreu, Damon, and Nomar WERE great players. Are we arguing that the age 32 group there isn't full of great players. Todd Helton wasn't great?

Abreu and Damon were speed guys with decent power.

Nomar was a smaller guy(possibe roider as well), with injury problems. Yes, he broke down.

quote:
This rather supports another on of my pet theories: I hate when people knock players for being "mere compilers". It's really HARD to be a compiler. It's tough to continue to be good enough to hang on and keep a starting job and keep producing in your mid to late 30s. Only truly great players can usually do it.

This has gotten way off track if you are talking about compilers.

We are talking how Pujols and Hamilton will perform within the next 5 years compared to Sal Perez and Hosmer(who is still a prospect)

This post was edited on 12/19/12 at 2:06 pm

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