re: NFL Betting Thread Week 15

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Green Bay owns the NFC North, particularly the Bears, whom they have beaten five consecutive times and covered the spread in four straight. Perception is at an all-time low on Chicago, which has lost two in a row to fall out of the division lead. But how bad was their loss at Minnesota last weekend? The Bears outgained the Vikings by almost 200 yards, but one pick-six and another interception returned to the goal line made a victory nearly a impossible. This spread was only 5.5 when these two teams met in Week 2 (a 23-10 Green Bay victory), so the numbers don’t really add up and the “value” is probably on Chicago here, but we’re not rushing to take them.

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We say it all the time, but in the NFL it’s crucial to never overreact to what you see in one week. Yes, the Falcons lost to the 4-8 Panthers last weekend. But here’s a question that was bound to come up as soon as Atlanta clinched the NFC South: “How can they sustain motivation on a weekly basis? Aren’t they due for a couple stinkers when there’s not as much on the line?” Now, you get Atlanta laying only a point at home, a place where Matt Ryan has lost only four times and is 23-12 ATS since taking over as the starter in 2008. We personally hate laying any points against the Giants in “big games,” but this matchup isn’t nearly as easy as everyone’s making it out to be.

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It’s not every day we’ll see a team that’s lost five straight getting more than 80 percent of the action as nearly a touchdown road favorite, but the Cardinals are so bad that, as of Friday, William Hill bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro had taken exactly zero bets on them. “Not a single person,” Vaccaro told ESPN’s Chad Millman. “Not even Bill Bidwell will bet on this team right now.” If Arizona was on the road at a place like New England or Denver this week, there’s a good chance the spread could reach the 20s. Instead, they get almost a touchdown at home against perhaps the biggest underachievers of the 2012 NFL season. The books will clearly be rooting for the Cardinals on Sunday. Should you? That’s a tough call to make, but… probably.

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