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Message
Microsoft's worst nightmare coming true
Posted on 12/3/12 at 5:42 pm
Posted on 12/3/12 at 5:42 pm
quote:
Almost one year ago today, we laid out the nightmare scenario for Microsoft (MSFT) that could lead to its business collapsing. After laying it all out, we concluded, "Fortunately for Microsoft, none of this is going to happen."
We were wrong.
A lot changed in the last year. Microsoft's nightmare scenario is actually starting to take hold. We're revisiting our slideshow from last year to see how things have played out.
Each number that follows has one piece of the nightmare scenario for Microsoft and an explanation of where Microsoft stands in comparison to that hypothetical situation.
1. The iPad eats the consumer PC market.
2. Employees gradually switch away from using Windows PCs for work.
3. Windows 8 fails to stop the iPad.
4. Loyal developers start to leave the Microsoft platform.
5. 5. Windows Phone gets no traction despite the Nokia deal and RIM's collapse.
6. Office loses relevance.
7. Microsoft's other business applications start to erode.
8. The platform business collapses.
9. The Xbox was never going to make up the slack, and Microsoft can no longer afford to keep investing in it.
10. Microsoft suffers a huge quarterly loss. Ballmer retires to play golf.
In the long term ...
Is this just a bad dream?
Last year, we concluded by saying, "Fortunately for Microsoft, none of this is going to happen. Windows 8 will reassert the dominance of the Windows PC. Office and other business products will remain corporate necessities, and developers will never be able to ignore Microsoft. Windows Phone will become a viable third mobile platform, the Xbox will continue to dominate the living room, and new products will surprise the pundits who thought Microsoft couldn't innovate. Even Bing will finally make a profit someday."
This year, it's a lot harder to say much of that. Windows 8 doesn't seem to be reasserting the dominance of the PC. Windows Phone is not a viable third platform. Bing is still burning money. The Microsoft nightmare scenario is actually becoming a reality.
LINK
This post was edited on 12/3/12 at 6:40 pm
Posted on 12/3/12 at 6:05 pm to rickgrimes
I just bought a brand new windows 8 PC. I also don't see many companies leaving Microsoft behind due to the strength of their server software.
Posted on 12/3/12 at 6:10 pm to rickgrimes
I love how those requirements are written to be correct no matter what, and yet only 2 or 3 of them are actually relevant.
Posted on 12/3/12 at 9:06 pm to rickgrimes
so you're saying i should sell my microsoft stock? I have about 200 shares, I have not been able to pay much attention to the market this year.
Posted on 12/4/12 at 12:06 am to rickgrimes
No mention on Bing?
They were losing $1 billion per quarter on Bing in '11. I think a few of us here could push a better product out if we had a $1 billion let alone $4 billion and all the rest that they wasted on Bing.
They were losing $1 billion per quarter on Bing in '11. I think a few of us here could push a better product out if we had a $1 billion let alone $4 billion and all the rest that they wasted on Bing.
Posted on 12/4/12 at 5:35 am to rickgrimes
do you really use Yahool for market and financial information?
Kinda like using MSNBC for fair and balanced reporting
Kinda like using MSNBC for fair and balanced reporting
Posted on 12/4/12 at 8:31 am to rickgrimes
MSFT is in position to take over the tech world right now. Windows 8 is a great OS that will gain momentum as the PCs are rolled out and the corporate world adapts to it. This isnt going to be a 2 month surge.
What the frick? This is garbage.
Huh?
Way better than RIM and in position to take over the corporate phone accounts from them. No other company will be able to offer the integration that MSFT will have there. Let alone the fact that Apple and Google seem more interested with personal phone use with their devices.
quote:
4. Loyal developers start to leave the Microsoft platform.
What the frick? This is garbage.
quote:
Windows Phone is not a viable third platform
Huh?
Way better than RIM and in position to take over the corporate phone accounts from them. No other company will be able to offer the integration that MSFT will have there. Let alone the fact that Apple and Google seem more interested with personal phone use with their devices.
Posted on 12/4/12 at 11:31 am to rickgrimes
I think money board traffic would increase if we all go ahead and admit we have factions like the rant. Positigers vs negatigers, Team Lee vs Team Swag. We have MSFT vs AAPL
Posted on 12/5/12 at 2:25 pm to rickgrimes
Most ignoramuses don't even know that iCloud runs on a Microsoft based infrastucture.
Posted on 12/5/12 at 7:42 pm to rickgrimes
I'm actually about to order a few msft win8 hyrid tablet notebooks to see about replacing all 40 of our ipads with .... I think msft is adjusting and gearing up for massive growth actually ...I'm a buyer at these levels
This post was edited on 12/5/12 at 7:43 pm
Posted on 12/5/12 at 7:59 pm to rickgrimes
Put simply, Microsoft fell victim to their success.
They were fat, happy and napping and the move to mobile over the last five years rolled them while they were not looking. It is an age old story.
As for now, Microsoft pretended that Surface and W8 were them catching up when the fact of the matter is they have already lost to Google and Apple and they can't catch up. Their hold on enterprise is going to deteriorate because of this and this is already happening.
Surface and W8 were their big moves and it appears they have failed.
They were fat, happy and napping and the move to mobile over the last five years rolled them while they were not looking. It is an age old story.
As for now, Microsoft pretended that Surface and W8 were them catching up when the fact of the matter is they have already lost to Google and Apple and they can't catch up. Their hold on enterprise is going to deteriorate because of this and this is already happening.
Surface and W8 were their big moves and it appears they have failed.
Posted on 12/6/12 at 8:55 pm to rickgrimes
Microsoft will be here in 2050. I'll keep my bets. Sell yours so I can snag a few discounts. Preesh.
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