| Posted by | Message |
Zilla 
LSU Fan
Friendswood, TX
Member since Jul 2005
9580 posts
| re: The Time Table for the Dollar (Posted on 12/5/12 at 10:23 pm to TheHiddenFlask)
great thread gentlemen 
|
| Back to top | |
Blakely Bimbo 
Alabama Fan
Member since Dec 2010
774 posts
| re: The Time Table for the Dollar (Posted on 12/6/12 at 11:55 am to slutiger5)
quote:
Thanks but I'm a rookie. I don't understand this.
It is so very complicated and that's why the gold bugs have everyone fooled about what is really taking place.
I am simple, so the way I see it, we already had the real inflation during the boom that went way too far adrift. What they are doing is trying to keep the system from blowing up from a period of too much leverage. I compare it to a balloon. If you let the air out too fast, the balloon flies out of your hand. You loose control.
Google Ray Dalio and "Beautiful Deleveraging" and read it. He calls it beautiful, but I would say that it is ELEGANT. May help you understand.
Have I been pissed at the FED? Yes, definitely. I am VERY angry that the bail out of the banking system is carried on the backs of savers. It has cost my 97 year old mother tens of thousands of dollars. I was pissed when the FED let the price of commods and especially food get too high. I felt that it was way too dangerous. I am angry because we are in this situation in the first place. IMO, this could have been prevented.
However, I am not so stupid to realize that the alternatives were total collapse. Nobody wants that. There has been a lot of jaw boning lately from all the Centrals Banks. You have to look at what they are actually doing. Again, think about the balloon and that money is the air.
This is not an exact explanation, but the money that has been "printed" so far is basically replacing the money that has gone to money heaven and been destroyed through debt write offs and deleveraging. Most of the money is sitting in bank reserves. The Fed is attempting a balancing act. They have been successful thus far and far more successful than Japan or the EU.
The Fed is telling you exactly what it is doing.
The links I referenced show when they add and when they drain the system. They post their operations.
Here is a site that reports the Slosh...
LINK
I hope this helps.
|
| Back to top | |
NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40697 posts
| re: The Time Table for the Dollar (Posted on 12/6/12 at 9:12 pm to TheHiddenFlask)
quote:
While they use completely true underpinnings, they completely ignore relativism. Sure, we're pretty f'd, but who's better? The Euro Zone is 10x as much of a shitshow, the Japanese are on our same path, but 20 years ahead. Everyone likes to point to China as a big scary point, but really: who in the hell would make a country like China the head of the global currency? We're talking about the country who's most common business technique is blatantly ignoring intellectual property laws.
Dead on.
|
| Back to top | |
slutiger5 
Southeastern LA Fan
Parroquias de Florida
Member since May 2007
7700 posts
 Online
| re: The Time Table for the Dollar (Posted on 12/6/12 at 9:35 pm to Bayou Tiger)
Neither. Just forgot to capetalize slu, dick!
|
| Back to top | |
Bunk Moreland 
Michigan Fan
Detroit, MI
Member since Dec 2010
3387 posts
| re: The Time Table for the Dollar (Posted on 12/6/12 at 10:27 pm to slutiger5)
I read a lot of doom stuff that would probably get laughed at, but I'll say that even in that class of people...you have a pretty good split between the hyperinflationistas/dollar collapse and the deflation/depression camp (which tends to think cash and the dollar is king). As this one poster I enjoy reading always says, the dollar may be a whore, but it's the best looking whore in the room. I just think if we're looking at a dollar collapse, then the whole shebang is going down, anyway, so get your gold, guns, and beans.
There is some anecdotal stuff out there about the dollar getting crushed when countries stop paying for oil in dollars. I don't know how much validity there is to these petrodollar recycling and petrodollar warfare theories, but again, what else are countries going to trade in? Certainly not euros at this time. I know there is some talk about Iran and Russia trading oil for gold. Who knows?
The deflationists have been making some solid arguments the last year or so, but I am still with the nutsos who see Helicopter Ben and his successors destroying the dollar in 5-10 years.
|
| Back to top | |
TheHiddenFlask 
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16420 posts
| re: The Time Table for the Dollar (Posted on 12/7/12 at 9:38 am to Bunk Moreland)
quote:
the deflation/depression camp (which tends to think cash and the dollar is king).
Those people exist?
quote:
I don't know how much validity there is to these petrodollar recycling and petrodollar warfare theories, but again, what else are countries going to trade in? Certainly not euros at this time. I know there is some talk about Iran and Russia trading oil for gold. Who knows?
My strong point is not global currency markets, but I am not seeing how that would crush the dollar's value. Liquidity, maybe. Value, no.
|
| Back to top | |
Crbello4Hiceman
LSU Fan
Lurking
Member since May 2011
384 posts
Online
| re: The Time Table for the Dollar (Posted on 12/7/12 at 9:41 am to TheHiddenFlask)
quote:
Liquidity
quote:
oil
I see what you did there
|
| Back to top | |
Crbello4Hiceman
LSU Fan
Lurking
Member since May 2011
384 posts
Online
| re: The Time Table for the Dollar (Posted on 12/11/12 at 11:05 am to TheHiddenFlask)
Bump for interest.... So it is becoming more mainstream of an opinion that China's economy will pass the US within the next 2 decades
LINK
That being said, their growing middle class and desire for prosperity might cause the nation to junk their approach to international property laws, etc. which have previously held them back. When the US economy is surpassed, china could become a much more attractive nation on which to base the global economy. Is this a threat to the underpinnings which have allowed us to run the deficit and use stimulus/easing while avoiding negative side affects? Serious question- I don't want to over-react to 1 article out there.
|
| Back to top | |
TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16420 posts
| re: The Time Table for the Dollar (Posted on 12/11/12 at 12:05 pm to Crbello4Hiceman)
quote:
That being said, their growing middle class and desire for prosperity might cause the nation to junk their approach to international property laws, etc. which have previously held them back. When the US economy is surpassed, china could become a much more attractive nation on which to base the global economy. Is this a threat to the underpinnings which have allowed us to run the deficit and use stimulus/easing while avoiding negative side affects? Serious question- I don't want to over-react to 1 article out there.
China is a moral dumpster fire. No way anyone give them the keys to the world's reserve currency. I would almost rather give it to Greece.
Here's an interesting question: Could any country that targets exchange rates with monetary policy ever be able to be the global reserve currency?
|
| Back to top | |
Meauxjeaux 
Memphis Fan
I have 91k posts with all my alters
Member since Jun 2005
13336 posts
Online
| re: The Time Table for the Dollar (Posted on 12/11/12 at 1:42 pm to slutiger5)
quote:
Neither. Just forgot to capetalize slu, dick!
Holy Mother of All Overreactions!
|
| Back to top | |
BennyAndTheInkJets 
Arkansas Fan
NYC
Member since Nov 2010
2882 posts
| re: The Time Table for the Dollar (Posted on 12/11/12 at 1:54 pm to Crbello4Hiceman)
quote:
That being said, their growing middle class and desire for prosperity might cause the nation to junk their approach to international property laws, etc. which have previously held them back. When the US economy is surpassed, china could become a much more attractive nation on which to base the global economy. Is this a threat to the underpinnings which have allowed us to run the deficit and use stimulus/easing while avoiding negative side affects? Serious question- I don't want to over-react to 1 article out there.
I'm not going to go into detail, but just keep in mind this very important aspect when discussing China:
There are very, very powerful vested interests in China. They are mostly involved with the communist party, and the communist party controls the state-run enterprises which are by far the largest companies in China. The middle class wealth will grow, but it will not be a smooth transition from an export driven economy to a consumption driven economy by any means. Will they pass the US by 2030? I don't know but I actually seriously doubt it for some structural and financially technical reasons.
|
| Back to top | |
Meauxjeaux
Memphis Fan
I have 91k posts with all my alters
Member since Jun 2005
13336 posts
Online
|
You know how hard it is to move a 55" LCD before they level your neighborhood for another hydro power plant or road to Grand Central Station?
|
| Back to top | |
Blakely Bimbo
Alabama Fan
Member since Dec 2010
774 posts
| re: The Time Table for the Dollar (Posted on 12/12/12 at 11:37 am to Meauxjeaux)
OK, This is a game changer. FED TARGETED UNEMPLOYMENT.
Won't raise until un employment under 6.5%. Took away target dates.
We crossed the rubicon.
This post was edited on 12/12 at 11:38 am
|
| Back to top | |
