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maclauer 
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2011
3916 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 1:22 pm to HoLeInOnEr05)
That was one site's review. My pick is based on thinking Tennessee can make it a close, sloppy game. I think 7 is too many points for a young team like that to be giving against a quality team, even if it at home. GTown has the advantage in the frontcourt with Whittington and Porter, so UT will be toast if Stokes gets into foul trouble.
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dgtiger3 
North Carolina St. Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
3158 posts
 Online
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 3:52 pm to maclauer)
NBA
Cavaliers +9
Kings +1.5
College Hoops
Georgia State -1
South Florida -3.5
Eastern Washington +5
Good Luck Tonight Guys 
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HoLeInOnEr05 
Auburn Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
12053 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 4:02 pm to dgtiger3)
You run a system for bball too?
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UltimateHog 
Arkansas Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
17259 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 4:26 pm to HoLeInOnEr05)
I would take Arkansas at home over nearly anyone getting points.
We'll either pull the upset, or get blown out.
We did start 17-0 at home last year and whipped a Top 10 Michigan team, it's not like Syracuse will be anything different in BWA, but I still wouldn't touch it.
Inconsistent shooting against that zone and we could get blown out, but like I said, we're usually 'on' at home.
It went down to +7? When I went to bed it was +8.5.
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dgtiger3
North Carolina St. Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
3158 posts
Online
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 4:29 pm to HoLeInOnEr05)
quote:
You run a system for bball too?
Honestly basketball was the first sport that really got me into advanced statistics and predicting value of teams.
This early in the year I just look for value in the lines, I try to bet on the teams that I feel the line has been set to favor, Usually a team with a worse record, or coming off a bad shooting night or two, because it is generally a "what have you done for me lately" market.
I have found that if I focus on teams that play 10 points better at home than they do on the road you can really find some value, especially with so many teams in college hoops. I love fading those teams on the road when they are favored against a inferior opponent that team that also plays much better at home.
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dgtiger3
North Carolina St. Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
3158 posts
Online
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 4:37 pm to UltimateHog)
quote:
I would take Arkansas at home over nearly anyone getting points.
We'll either pull the upset, or get blown out.
We did start 17-0 at home last year and whipped a Top 10 Michigan team, it's not like Syracuse will be anything different in BWA, but I still wouldn't touch it.
Inconsistent shooting against that zone and we could get blown out, but like I said, we're usually 'on' at home.
It went down to +7? When I went to bed it was +8.5.
There are lots of stats that back your claims as well. Out of the 345 Division 1 teams last season, Arkansas ranked #7 in Home Court Advantage, playing around 20 points better at home than they did on the road.
Only reason I am not on them tonight is the other numbers I follow have Syracuse as a vastly superior team, and they could get completely overmatched.
Goodluck.
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maclauer
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2011
3916 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 6:18 pm to maclauer)
quote:
My pick is based on thinking Tennessee can make it a close, sloppy game
So far, so good with this prediction 
What an ugly game so far.
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TiggerWoods
Auburn Fan
Auburn
Member since Nov 2010
1814 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 7:14 pm to maclauer)
Auburn under 142 1/2
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maclauer
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2011
3916 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 8:06 pm to TiggerWoods)
Added live in-play: Ark TT under 74.5 for 1 unit
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maclauer
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2011
3916 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 8:22 pm to maclauer)
Another live in-play: Arkansas TT under 77.5 now, also 1 unit
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TiggerWoods
Auburn Fan
Auburn
Member since Nov 2010
1814 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 8:31 pm to maclauer)
Auburn under is not looking so hot
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UltimateHog
Arkansas Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
17259 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:13 pm to TiggerWoods)
Auburn up on DePaul at half 
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maclauer
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2011
3916 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:42 pm to maclauer)
My worst nightmare. Both TTs lose and Ark doesn't cover
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UltimateHog
Arkansas Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
17259 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:51 pm to maclauer)
Lmao that FT with 2 seconds left fricked people that took Arkansas at +8.5.
Forgot about that. Ouch.
Don't even know why we fouled with 3 seconds left down 8. Rigged.
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Billy Mays 
Ole Miss Fan
Northshore (we're better than you)
Member since Jan 2009
13320 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:53 pm to UltimateHog)
Fullerton needs a miracle to cover -4.5 ...
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Signature
LSU Fan
Omnipresent
Member since Sep 2005
5434 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:55 pm to maclauer)
And Cal St Fullerton disappeared.
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UltimateHog
Arkansas Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
17259 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:55 pm to Billy Mays)
Seriously? frick.
CSF was up by 7 at the half, I felt good.
They must be getting leveled in the 2nd half.
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Billy Mays
Ole Miss Fan
Northshore (we're better than you)
Member since Jan 2009
13320 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:58 pm to UltimateHog)
Yeah they've only scored 24 points so far in the 2nd half.
Reminds me why laying points on bad/mediocre teams on the road isn't usually a great idea.
OT is the only way out of this one I'm afraid.
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HoLeInOnEr05
Auburn Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
12053 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 10:04 pm to Billy Mays)
Cuse ML hits!
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UltimateHog
Arkansas Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
17259 posts
| re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 (Posted on 11/30/12 at 10:06 pm to HoLeInOnEr05)
CSF goes down 77-75.
Wtf happened they hit a 3 to cut it to 2 with 5 seconds left, couldn't foul? Jesus.
Luckily I got talked into that one late and low balled it.
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