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Random BCS Facts: Polls vs. Computer Rankings

Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:21 pm
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17501 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:21 pm
There were 2 years that a team made the BCS NCG without their poll average in the top 2. Name the years and team.

-Nebraska 2001 was 4 in both polls, Oregon was 2 and Colorado was 3.

-Oklahoma 2003 was No. 3 in both polls, USC was 1 in both

There have been 4 years when a team's computer score was not in the top 2 and made the BCS NCG, name the year and teams.

-Alabama 2011 finished No. 3, Oklahoma St. No. 2

-Texas 2009 was No. 3, Cincinatti No. 2

-Florida 2008 was No. 3, Texas No. 2

-Ohio State 2007 was No. 3, Virginia Tech No. 1


The point is, from 98-2003 the BCS formula put greater emphasis on the math and automation, vs. the polls. IMO 2001 scenerio was ridiculous with Nebraska failing to win its division and Oregon should have gone. 2003 was screwy but debatable. Since then, and 2/3 of years before, the polls had their way.

Since the automated formulas were de-emphasized starting in 2004, the computers have disagreed with voters half the time about who the top 2 teams should be. I have generally disliked that the voters have so much power, but 3/4 computer generated matchups would have been aweful--only 2011 was truly debatable. 2007=LSU/VT rematch, 2008 = OU/UT rematch, 2009=Alabama/Cincy?

I'm glad those matchups didn't happen and maybe there is more to the eyeball test then credit is given.



This post was edited on 11/21/12 at 10:00 am
Posted by alajones
Huntsvegas
Member since Oct 2005
35940 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:21 pm to
Who are two people who have never been in my kitchen.
This post was edited on 11/20/12 at 3:22 pm
Posted by ProjectP2294
West St. Louis County
Member since May 2007
79062 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:22 pm to
Oklahoma in '03 was not 1 or 2 in the polls.
Posted by JDM1992
In your head
Member since Dec 2011
15141 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:25 pm to
This post was edited on 2/17/13 at 4:13 pm
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
87642 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

without their poll average being No. 1 or 2


what does that mean?

quote:

There have been 3 years when a team's computer score was not in the top 2


2011 bama
Florida 2008
?
Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
45060 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:27 pm to
Nebraska '01? & the aforementioned '03 OU
This post was edited on 11/20/12 at 3:28 pm
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17501 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

There were 2 years that a team made the BCS NCG without their poll average was not in the top 2. Name the years and team.


Nebraska '01? & the aforementioned '03 OU

Correct

quote:

There have been 4 years when a team's computer score was not in the top 2 and made the BCS NCG, name the year and teams.


Alabama 2011 finished No. 3, Oklahoma St. No. 2

Texas 2009 was No. 3, Cincinatti No. 2

Florida 2008 was No. 3, Texas No. 2

Ohio State 2007 was No. 3, Virginia Tech No. 1






This post was edited on 11/20/12 at 3:55 pm
Posted by JDM1992
In your head
Member since Dec 2011
15141 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:34 pm to
This post was edited on 2/17/13 at 4:13 pm
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
87642 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:39 pm to
I got 2/3.

The cincy bit is interesting.
Posted by 3HourTour
A whiskey barrel
Member since Mar 2006
21911 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:40 pm to
quote:

Ohio State 2007 was No. 2, Virginia Tech No. 1



Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18053 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:43 pm to
Question 1:
Oklahoma 2003
Florida 2006 (or Nebraska 2001?)

Question 2:
FSU 2000
USC 2004
FSU 1998
Oregon 2010

Mostly guesses, but I'm fairly confident about Oklahoma 2003.
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17501 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 3:54 pm to
quote:

Ohio State 2007 was No. 2, Virginia Tech No. 1


My mistake. OSU 3, VT 1
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17501 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 4:01 pm to

quote:

I misunderstood, I though this was BCS average over the entire season (like if a team was #3 the entire season until the last week) that got in


It could have been worded better. I meant not one of the top 2 teams in the final BCS standings.










Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
9429 posts
Posted on 11/20/12 at 4:54 pm to
quote:

I'm glad those matchups didn't happen and maybe there is more to the eyeball test then credit is given.


I agree.

The so called "eyeball test" as it relates to the human polls is really no more than humans filling in the blank spots of the computers like considering margin and ease of victories, injuries, back to back tough games etc etc etc. . .


It's an easy target for criticism when one doesn't like the team getting credit in a specific year but over time, even the harshest critics probably agree with the consensus almost all the time unless they have some very radical one team/conference bias.

The irony is that many of loudest critics of the "eye test" one year are the first ones to use it another year to argue computer rankings they don't like of espouse it when it favors their team.

Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17501 posts
Posted on 11/21/12 at 9:46 am to
quote:

It's an easy target for criticism when one doesn't like the team getting credit in a specific year but over time, even the harshest critics probably agree with the consensus almost all the time unless they have some very radical one team/conference bias.

The irony is that many of loudest critics of the "eye test" one year are the first ones to use it another year to argue computer rankings they don't like of espouse it when it favors their team.


I can't stand the "eyeball" test because it's subjective, media-driven, and inconsistant. However, with with what the BCS has become, we would have had potentially 3 awful matchups had it not been for the polls.


With all the smart people we have in this country, it would be nice to come up with a standardized, consistent algorithm that is agreeable by all to at least narrow down maybe 6 teams for the selection committee to consider. I guess that's just not possible.
Posted by bigpapamac
Mobile, AL
Member since Oct 2007
22596 posts
Posted on 11/21/12 at 9:54 am to
quote:

-Texas 2009 was No. 3, Cincinatti No. 2


And some people wonder why everybody hates the computers.
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17501 posts
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:12 am to

quote:

-Texas 2009 was No. 3, Cincinatti No. 2


And some people wonder why everybody hates the computers.


I was bored and looking this stuff up the other day. I generally support objectivity, but this outcome was unexceptable and to me, but really, how bad was it?

In the Week 15 rankings, Cincy had beaten the No. 16 (WVU), @ 17 (Pitt), and @ 18 (Oregon State).

Texas has beaten No. @19 (OkSt) and 22 Nebraska (Dallas). Texas Tech, OU, and Mizzou got votes.

Texas was clearly the better team, but were they deserving? It's pretty subjective. Of course Cincy got crushed in the bowl, but they also got a consolation prize and lost their coach, so it would have been fun to see what they were capable of doing. Looking forward to the possibility of stuff like this being cleared up.
Posted by Sophandros
Victoria Concordia Crescit
Member since Feb 2005
45219 posts
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:30 am to
quote:

With all the smart people we have in this country, it would be nice to come up with a standardized, consistent algorithm that is agreeable by all to at least narrow down maybe 6 teams for the selection committee to consider. I guess that's just not possible.


It's called a playoff.

I've been yelling for a playoff for almost 20 years now.
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17501 posts
Posted on 11/21/12 at 10:38 am to
quote:

It's called a playoff.

I've been yelling for a playoff for almost 20 years now.


Sure, but moving forward, I don't want to see a situation where the commitee awards a 2 loss ACC champ with a spot in the the 4 team playoff over say a 1-loss SEC who's not the champ. I want the 4 best and most deserving teams in.
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