Some fans forget just how "lucky" Nick Saban has been.

The one thing that has always down right confused me concerning LSU football, is the idea that some fans hold that LSU has only been successful under Les Miles because he is "lucky". If Les wins because of luck (which is so overblown it's not even funny), then logic would have it that he only loses because of (bad) luck. Never see that argument from the Negatigers out there.

But it got me thinking, does anyone remember how "lucky" Nick Saban, the coach so many Les-haters presume would have led LSU to 4 or 5 National Titles had he never left, has been in his title runs. Let's go back:

2003: LSU lost a home game to Florida and freshman QB Chris Leak. After that week, there were a number of teams undefeated or with 1 loss still ahead of LSU. Miami lost two in a row to get to two losses, FSU loses another one late to get to two losses, Defending champ Ohio State loses its only game to Michigan under Jim Tressel the last week of the regular season, who already had two losses so both are out, opening the door for USC or LSU. Then after all of that, because strength of schedule was a factor back then, meaningless games between Notre Dame and Syracuse, Boise State and Hawaii would both need to go LSU's way to jump USC in the BCS computers. They both did. Not that that LSU team wasn't 100% deserving of being there, but it easily could not have happened.

2009: This on paper is Saban's best team, they went undefeated after all, avenging a loss to UF in the SEC title game. But let's not forget the "gritty win" they got 12-10 over a crap Lane Kiffin Tennessee team at home (the same score LSU was getting shite for against Auburn this year) on a freaking blocked field goal, the Patrick Peterson INT that wasn't in Bryant-Denny that could have flipped that game, the last minute comeback against LSU, and let's not forget the actual National Title Game. Colt McCoy goes out the opening drive of the game, and Bama is up 24-6 at half. The incredible Bama team then managed to be sitting with a 24-21 lead with 3 minutes left in the game, with UT having possession and all the momentum for the comeback with the 2ND STRING QB. Only the turnover and late score made that game look like a dominant win... and we can only guess how it would have been different if McCoy not had been out and Texas not been losing so bad by halftime.

2011: We all know too well this story. LSU goes into Tuscaloosa and beats Bama. End of story. But wait, not only did OSU and Stanford not finish undefeated, but Oregon also lost a 2nd game to USC. It seems had they finished with only the one loss and PAC champs, it would have been hard to give Bama a rematch being in the same conference, over a rematch with Oregon, or just playing OSU for the first time. Not only did all of those things have to happen in the last three weeks, but the voters had to ignore the same logic that put Florida in the 2006 game instead of Michigan, and LSU in the 2007 game and not Georgia (a non division winner)... for an SEC west REMATCH at that. Not to mention the times that when Nebraska played for it all without winning the division, and FSU played for it all though they lost to Miami who finished 3rd in the BCS... the system was worked on and tweaked because the sentiment was that SHOULD NEVER HAPPEN. Not saying Bama wasn't better than those other teams last year, they were. But the "most deserving" argument of the past all of a sudden went out the window for "best teams" last year. Sometimes better teams lose, and because we don't have a playoff, that just sucks for you. (LSU 2006 anyone?)

Then we come to this year. There are still some games left, Bama could lose to Georgia eliminating them from the BCS. But the fact that 2 of the 3 teams that were ahead of one loss Bama would lose the VERY NEXT WEEK after the Bama loss to A&M is incredibly fortunate. Auburn didn't get that fortunate in 2004, Georgia didn't get that fortunate in 2002. Both of those teams were really good, good enough to win it all. Things just didn't fall their way.

Point being, there always seem to be a lot of people that credit Alabama's success to Saban's coaching ability, but LSU wins in spite of Miles coaching ability, he's just gotten lucky. I just wanted to remind some of those LSU fans out there that perception is everything. Just about every National Title in this non-playoff world requires some good fortune. What Saban has done at LSU and Alabama is truly impressive, there is no arguing that. It just must be noted that 2 of his 3 titles could not have happened, 1 of which could be argued should not have happened. 4 National Titles at the end of this year would put him in college football lore, but a couple breaks falling the other way, and he could just be like any other of the top coaches in the game right now.

As always