re: Stats Don't Lie: LSU/Bama Stat Comparison

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What about 3rd down %?

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Funny you should ask...

3rd Down Percentage
LSU: 29-66, 42.93%
Bama: 31-63, 49.20%
Difference: +2 converted, -3 attempted, Bama

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Stats do lie. Often.

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Yeah, stats lie or deviate occasionally, and all statisticians will acknowledge that. That point is that over the course of several tests, the end result will likely mimic the statistics based model. If you were to plug these statistics into a custom built program built to randomly generate outcomes based on the statistics that took the chance of a down game into effect and ran it 1000 times, I'd be willing to bet that a majority of the end results mimic the statistics given to the machine. A problem with sports statistics is team quality, depth, and quality of opponents. That isn't an issue in this case. LSU and Alabama both have highly ranked recruiting classes annually, play in the same conference, and they are both pretty even in terms of depth and talent. This isn't comparing LSU to Oregon or Michigan or USC where they play in different conference who play less defense or more speed based styles of football. If you want to make these stats deceiving, you're ignoring what's obvious. Everything from quality of opponent to yards gained to yards given up to points scored is within points of one another. In this comparison, that speaks pretty loudly.

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And what were the LSU/Bama Stat Comparisons before the NC game?

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Here are the stats for both teams last season. You can go through the trouble of subtracting the SEC and NC game stats if you'd like. The most telling stats are the yards given up (even with two extra games), the lack of offense, and the difficulty of running the ball against Bama. Those all played a major role in the outcomes of both match ups against Bama.

LSU Cumulative Stats - 2011
Bama Cumulative Stats - 2011

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So basically, LSU played a much easier schedule than we previously thought and are struggling to win whereas Alabama is dominating a tougher schedule than previously realized? This thread isn't going to go the way you predict

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Well, I actually predicted there'd be people who either ignored the stats completely, said they didn't matter because stats lie, or just tarded out before thinking it through properly, which is where I'm thinking you fell in those groups. I actually used estimated statistics of the number of stupidity I've experienced here to come to that conclusion, and wouldn't you know it, they turned out right.

How did you read those and come to that conclusion? Alabama has a much tougher schedule? Their opponents have 3 extra wins, including a 4-1 Sun Belt Western Kentucky, and one loss less than LSU's, which includes a 0-5 Idaho who LSU crushed. If anything, with Arkansas being a used condom of a football team and Michigan not being as good as originally predicted, Alabama's schedule was much easier than it was supposed to be. LSU and Alabama has pretty much played the same schedule, and LSU made mistakes that lead to points and closer games, especially in the turnover and penalty columns. Towson didn't even really compete, and we were up 31-9 early in the 4th when the game was over. Auburn got handed the ball 26 yards out of the end zone, and then proceeded to cross the 50 yard line once in the second half. LSU played terrible, gave the ball away a ton, didn't execute well, and they walked away 2-0. I'm not saying Bama's not a great team or they're won't possibly beat us. I'm saying that when you look at the overall comparison, their opponents and performances are pretty much dead on to ours.