- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Stats Don't Lie: LSU/Bama Stat Comparison
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:28 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:28 am
I posted this in the prediction thread, but I feel like it needed its own post just to give a little dose of reality. Statistics don't lie. They don't always turn out to predict outcomes perfectly, but over 5 games, I think it's a good indicator as to how the season has gone so far. All I'm hearing is how LSU is going to drop 3+ games, Bama is playing SO much better than LSU, and how LSU is playing terrible football compared them.
Read these stats, which are all current and accurate up to today (9/30/12), and rationalize why Bama is playing so much better football than LSU. The numbers in everything except for three areas are damn near neck and neck. The only noticeable margins are in turnovers, penalties, and points against, which has an alternative view point presented based on the difference in late game coaching styles between Saban and Miles with a win locked up. Even the quality of opponent is pretty much the same, and there is a myth that is perpetuated a ton around here that Bama's thrashing high quality opponents while we're struggling with cupcakes. It's even debatable that Bama's biggest win against Michigan, who was 6 points from losing to Air Force and being 1-3 on the season, is an equal or lesser quality win than LSU beating Washington.
So, please, Ranters, explain why these stats are wrong and present your case as to why you're correct?
Opponent Records
LSU: 8-14 (without LSU matchups: 8-9)
Bama: 11-13 (without Bama matchups: 11-8)
Difference: Bama opponents had three more wins, one less loss. What a drastic difference!
Offense, Total Yards
LSU: 2164 yards (432.8 yards/game)
Bama: 2005 yards (401 yards/game)
Difference: +159 yards (31.8 yards/game) gained, LSU
Total Yards Given Up on D
LSU: 1089 yards (217 yards/game)
Bama: 958 yards (191.6 yards/game)
Difference: +131 yards given up, LSU
Points Scored
LSU: 195 (39 ppg)
Bama: 201 (40.2 ppg)
Difference: +6 points (1.2 ppg), Bama
Points Scored Against
LSU: 63 (12.6 ppg)
Bama: 35 (7 ppg)
Difference: +28 (5.6 ppg) points given up, LSU
Penalties
LSU: 42 - 305 yards
Bama: 20 - 168 yards
Difference: +22 penalties for +137 yards lost, LSU
Turnovers Gained
LSU: 12
Bama: 15
Difference: +3 turnovers gained, Bama
Turnovers Lost
LSU: 8
Bama: 3
Difference: +5 turnovers lost, LSU
Also noteworthy is the points given up in the 4th quarter once a win was locked. It's a nitpicky stat but coaching style plays a factor in skewed stats:
Points Against in 4th, Win Locked
LSU: 20 (4 ppg)
Bama: 7 (1.4 ppg)
Difference: +13 given up in 4th in clean up, LSU
Points Against Without 4th and clean up time
LSU: 43 (8.6 ppg)
Bama: 28 (5.6 ppg)
Difference: +15 points (3 ppg) given up without 4th counted, LSU
ETA:
3rd Down Percentage
LSU: 29-66, 42.93%
Bama: 31-63, 49.20%
Difference: +2 converted, -3 attempted, Bama
Read these stats, which are all current and accurate up to today (9/30/12), and rationalize why Bama is playing so much better football than LSU. The numbers in everything except for three areas are damn near neck and neck. The only noticeable margins are in turnovers, penalties, and points against, which has an alternative view point presented based on the difference in late game coaching styles between Saban and Miles with a win locked up. Even the quality of opponent is pretty much the same, and there is a myth that is perpetuated a ton around here that Bama's thrashing high quality opponents while we're struggling with cupcakes. It's even debatable that Bama's biggest win against Michigan, who was 6 points from losing to Air Force and being 1-3 on the season, is an equal or lesser quality win than LSU beating Washington.
So, please, Ranters, explain why these stats are wrong and present your case as to why you're correct?
Opponent Records
LSU: 8-14 (without LSU matchups: 8-9)
Bama: 11-13 (without Bama matchups: 11-8)
Difference: Bama opponents had three more wins, one less loss. What a drastic difference!
Offense, Total Yards
LSU: 2164 yards (432.8 yards/game)
Bama: 2005 yards (401 yards/game)
Difference: +159 yards (31.8 yards/game) gained, LSU
Total Yards Given Up on D
LSU: 1089 yards (217 yards/game)
Bama: 958 yards (191.6 yards/game)
Difference: +131 yards given up, LSU
Points Scored
LSU: 195 (39 ppg)
Bama: 201 (40.2 ppg)
Difference: +6 points (1.2 ppg), Bama
Points Scored Against
LSU: 63 (12.6 ppg)
Bama: 35 (7 ppg)
Difference: +28 (5.6 ppg) points given up, LSU
Penalties
LSU: 42 - 305 yards
Bama: 20 - 168 yards
Difference: +22 penalties for +137 yards lost, LSU
Turnovers Gained
LSU: 12
Bama: 15
Difference: +3 turnovers gained, Bama
Turnovers Lost
LSU: 8
Bama: 3
Difference: +5 turnovers lost, LSU
Also noteworthy is the points given up in the 4th quarter once a win was locked. It's a nitpicky stat but coaching style plays a factor in skewed stats:
Points Against in 4th, Win Locked
LSU: 20 (4 ppg)
Bama: 7 (1.4 ppg)
Difference: +13 given up in 4th in clean up, LSU
Points Against Without 4th and clean up time
LSU: 43 (8.6 ppg)
Bama: 28 (5.6 ppg)
Difference: +15 points (3 ppg) given up without 4th counted, LSU
ETA:
3rd Down Percentage
LSU: 29-66, 42.93%
Bama: 31-63, 49.20%
Difference: +2 converted, -3 attempted, Bama
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 9:02 am
19
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:31 am to Dijkstra
quote:
Penalties
LSU: 42 - 305 yards
Bama: 20 - 168 yards
Difference: +22 penalties for +137 yards lost, LSU
This and lost fumbles are the 2 things that have people pulling their hair out
When did LSU turn into a fumbling machine?
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:37 am to Dijkstra
quote:
Stats Don't Lie:
stats also don't tell they whole story either and can be deceiving...
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:39 am to Dijkstra
Sorry but stats do lie.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:39 am to Dijkstra
Stats do lie. Often.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:43 am to Dijkstra
Stats properly tortured will confess to anything.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:51 am to Dijkstra
So basically, LSU played a much easier schedule than we previously thought and are struggling to win whereas Alabama is dominating a tougher schedule than previously realized?
This thread isn't going to go the way you predict
This thread isn't going to go the way you predict
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:10 am to Dijkstra
quote:
Penalties
LSU: 42 - 305 yards
Bama: 20 - 168 yards
Difference: +22 penalties for +137 yards lost, LSU
Turnovers Lost
LSU: 8
Bama: 3
Difference: +5 turnovers lost, LSU
this seems to be what most people have been complaining about, and those stats are not close
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:32 am to Dijkstra
Stats lie!
Bama is up comfortably enough that they play backups. Our starters are in late in the game.
Your eyes should tell you everything. Offensive execution is lacking. Sustained drives are lacking.
This team will lose 3 IF they continue playing at their current level.
Bama is up comfortably enough that they play backups. Our starters are in late in the game.
Your eyes should tell you everything. Offensive execution is lacking. Sustained drives are lacking.
This team will lose 3 IF they continue playing at their current level.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:33 am to Dijkstra
quote:You don't math, do you…
LSU: 8-14 (without LSU matchups: 8-9) Bama: 11-13 (without Bama matchups: 11-8) Difference: Bama opponents had two more wins, one less loss. What a drastic difference!
ETA: As to the 'stats don't lie' BS, there are three types of lies; lies, damn lies, and statistics. There is a reason for that famous quip.
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 8:38 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:43 am to Dijkstra
Stats do lie
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:48 am to Dijkstra
There is saying....
There are lies, damn lies and statistics. Those two teams aren't even close right now. We're sloppy, they are disciplined. That's the long and short of it.
There are lies, damn lies and statistics. Those two teams aren't even close right now. We're sloppy, they are disciplined. That's the long and short of it.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:54 am to Dijkstra
quote:
The numbers in everything except for three areas are damn near neck and neck. The only noticeable margins are in turnovers, penalties, and points against
A HUGE reason Bama is playing better than LSU right now. You can throw all your other stats out the window.
quote:
which has an alternative view point presented based on the difference in late game coaching styles between Saban and Miles with a win locked up
So what you are saying is that Bama plays hard till the final gun and LSU lays back by thinking they have the game won????? This will work well against teams like SC and FLA and Bama. Cuase I am gonna tell ya. The LSU team I saw last night will struggle BIGTIME against the three teams I mentioned.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 9:09 am to Dijkstra
No surprise. Penalties and turnovers are the difference. LSU is killing themselves, pure and simple.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 9:52 am to Dijkstra
Opponent Records indicates that bama's opponents have won about 27% more games and have better winning percentages than LSU's. When you excluded the LSU/Bama matchup it reveals bama opponents have a winning record while LSU opponents have a losing record. All this before you look at the quality of each team's opponents.
Points scored and points allowed don't favor your argument at all. They show that LSU scored less and allowed more against what is demonstrated to be inferior opposition by the previous stat.
Why not just state turnover margin? It heavily favors bama, both in net terms or as presented in op.
I get your point, but looking at the numbers makes me feel worse about what has happened so far this season. Inferior showings against inferior opposition. Turnovers and penalties indicate inferior coaching and/or composure.
Points scored and points allowed don't favor your argument at all. They show that LSU scored less and allowed more against what is demonstrated to be inferior opposition by the previous stat.
Why not just state turnover margin? It heavily favors bama, both in net terms or as presented in op.
I get your point, but looking at the numbers makes me feel worse about what has happened so far this season. Inferior showings against inferior opposition. Turnovers and penalties indicate inferior coaching and/or composure.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 10:19 am to Dijkstra
Pirate, I think you might need a new major. Statistics obviously isn't your forte.
Posted on 10/2/12 at 12:37 pm to Dijkstra
So, Bama is consistently better than us in just about every stat you posted, despite playing a tougher sched.
In reference to the tougher sched, id like to see some kind of average opponent ratings by sagarin or something to put it in to perspective. I dont think opponent W-L record does it justice when we're both playing cupcakes.
In reference to the tougher sched, id like to see some kind of average opponent ratings by sagarin or something to put it in to perspective. I dont think opponent W-L record does it justice when we're both playing cupcakes.
Posted on 10/2/12 at 12:37 pm to Dijkstra
Stats would rather climb the tallest tree and lie, than stand on the ground and tell the truth.
Damn Stats.
Damn Stats.
Posted on 10/2/12 at 1:04 pm to Dijkstra
We might as well not even show up November 3. WE FUUUUUUUCCCKKKKKEEEEDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!!!!!!!!
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News