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Alcoa Beat & Earnings Season
Posted on 7/9/12 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 7/9/12 at 3:27 pm
Wow. That's 2 consecutive quarters AA beat estimates. Something is wrong here. .01 on an expected .05 cent basis. That's technically a 20% beat
I bet we will have a rather depressed earnings season as many companies have already per announced to the down side. All multinationals are going to get hit on FX basis
I bet we will have a rather depressed earnings season as many companies have already per announced to the down side. All multinationals are going to get hit on FX basis
3
Posted on 7/9/12 at 3:29 pm to greenhead11
quote:
.01 on an expected .05 cent basis. That's technically a 20% beat
or a round off error. What was the actual dollar earnings estimates vs actual.
Posted on 7/10/12 at 9:16 am to C
Street expected .05, AA delivered with a crushing .06...and no one cares. Everybody knows commodity prices and global growth are huge head winds for AA
Posted on 7/10/12 at 9:33 am to greenhead11
Good news, but its hard for me to get excited about a company that makes about $400M but will still have to contribute well over that to their pension plan. Although the new ERISA discounting smoothing rules may help them out by flattening out their contribution structure.
Posted on 7/10/12 at 10:49 am to greenhead11
quote:
Street expected .05, AA delivered with a crushing .06
that on a per share basis. The actual is something rounded of to the nearest cent times the number of shares. As an example say there were 100 shares and the total earnings estimate was $5.49. The per share earnings estimate would be $.05. Now assume the actual earnings was $5.51. Now the per share earnings was $.06. The actual difference was less than 1% but the per share change, as you stated in the OP, reflects 20%.
So lets look at their actual earnings. $61 million. Total shares: 1.07 billion. So actual earnings per share was $.057. I don't know what the actual estimate was, but I doubt it was a 20% difference like you stated. The revenues were only 2.5% difference. so...
Posted on 7/10/12 at 11:24 am to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:
Good news, but its hard for me to get excited about a company that makes about $400M but will still have to contribute well over that to their pension plan. Although the new ERISA discounting smoothing rules may help them out by flattening out their contribution structure
How many companies still have pension plans in place? Defined contribution plans seem to be a much more viable and affordable retirement option.
Posted on 7/10/12 at 11:59 am to GregYoureMyBoyBlue
quote:
How many companies still have pension plans in place? Defined contribution plans seem to be a much more viable and affordable retirement option.
Many of them have a pension plan for the older workers but the newer workers are under a defined contribution plan. Don't know specifically about AA, though.
Posted on 7/10/12 at 2:28 pm to Quidam65
I read a story that in the old days 41% of USA had pension plans. Now it is 9%.
Still common for public employees.
Still common for public employees.
Posted on 7/10/12 at 3:45 pm to matthew25
quote:
Still common for public employees
My biggest problem with government work is Pension Plans. It's fiscally irresponsible to assume any type of asset growth to fund future liabilities if the majority of that growth is in risky asset classes. These state pensions that have a projected "growth" of 7-8% are ridiculous and it baffles me how these projections haven't been revised downward. It seems like everyone is so scared to say we have a problem and that we need to stop the bleeding rather than trying to fix everything in one swoop. Private sector is the private sector, but if i have to pay more taxes to fund a public worker's pension to sit on his arse for 30 years in retirement, i'm going to be pissed.
/rant
This post was edited on 7/10/12 at 3:49 pm
Posted on 7/10/12 at 4:32 pm to GregYoureMyBoyBlue
quote:
How many companies still have pension plans in place? Defined contribution plans seem to be a much more viable and affordable retirement option.
A HUGE amount. Most of them are legacy but almost all of your large companies have DB plans. A common joke is that GM is a massive pension company that sells cars on the side.
Posted on 7/10/12 at 4:34 pm to GregYoureMyBoyBlue
quote:
but if i have to pay more taxes to fund a public worker's pension to sit on his arse for 30 years in retirement, i'm going to be pissed.
Get ready because it's coming. On our current trajectory there is no feasible way for Medicare caid, SS, and public pensions plans to be sustainable.
The baby boomers getting old represents its own fiscal cliff. Oh and we'll be paying for these frick head senators etc who have accomplished nothing to receive full salary benefits the rest of their life. Clearly their salaries are wasted investments (not saying I could do a better job- id be a terrible politician)
Posted on 7/10/12 at 5:59 pm to GregYoureMyBoyBlue
quote:
These state pensions that have a projected "growth" of 7-8% are ridiculous and it baffles me how these projections haven't been revised downward. It seems like everyone is so scared to say we have a problem and that we need to stop the bleeding rather than trying to fix everything in one swoop.
Unfortunately the magic 8% unicorn number isn't the only problem with state pensions. I've seen times where a municipality was supposed to make a contribution and just didn't. ERISA is so much tougher on their plans than PBGC. The magic 8% number does make it to where you can't possibly manage your assets to your liabilities, so even if a municipality is fully funded the amount of risk still inherent on their balance sheet is pretty substantial.
Posted on 7/18/12 at 1:36 pm to greenhead11
i'm considering moving my position within another metals stock to AA. getting whipped on it, might as well get whipped with AA. 
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