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re: BCS has achieved consensus on 4-team seeded playoff.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:14 am to Baloo
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:14 am to Baloo
quote:
Polls aren't objective. They are made with subjective biases. Why don't we just take teams as they are ranked in the RPI? The BCS poll is incredibly subjective, as 2/3 of it is an opinion poll. It is no accurate gauge of quality.
Wasn't talking about polls. Was talking about the computer formulas.
ETA: I think there need to be like 10 formulas for determining the strength of each team. Have a bunch of sport experts, writers, statisticians submit their formulas...have some committee pick the best ones. Use the average results of them. The computers may want to incorporate poll results, but that's up the formulaic author.
If it were me, I'd balance the formula to include the following:
25% OOC result and relative strength of OOC opponent per own formula
25% Another embedded formula that incorporates offensive and defensive statistics (redzone efficiency, Turnover ratios, etc)
25% Coaches poll
25% Look at 5 previous years results/strength (this part of the formula basically says "a team that was really good 2 years ago is probably still pretty good this year...or at least has the essential cogs to be talented such as a coach, overall talent level, etc")
This post was edited on 6/21/12 at 10:22 am
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:18 am to TulaneUVA
But people judge the goodness of computer formulas on the basis of whether or not their results match the opinion polls though. That is why the BCS formulas have been subjected to repeated adjustment from year to year.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:38 am to TulaneUVA
quote:
25% Look at 5 previous years results/strength (this part of the formula basically says "a team that was really good 2 years ago is probably still pretty good this year...or at least has the essential cogs to be talented such as a coach, overall talent level, etc")
That's horrible - recently we've seen new coaches arrive at programs and transform them into national championship caliber teams within 3-4 years. The difference from year to year can be enormous - in the last 10-15 odd years we've seen several examples of teams that were mediocre the year before win a national championship the following year (auburn 09-10, lsu 02-03, tOSU 01-02, OU 99-00)
I'd rather let the Hilton and Kardashian sisters pick teams on the basis of "hotness" than that... because if it is a joke I'd rather it be understood to be a joke than pretend legitimacy
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