re: Would you hedge this bet

quote:

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Already got Heat for the Championship 600 to win 500.

Can bet 375 to win 600 on the Thunder now.

So, if Heat win + 125.

If Thunder win, break even.

hedge? Why or why not?

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I would just take the moneyline on the Thunder in each upcoming game. If you put 100 on the Thunder in the next game -- they will likely be a dog -- a Thunder loss loses you that 100 but pretty much ensures that your Heat play is going to hit.

If the heat go up 3-1, I would just let the next game ride.

If the Thunder tie it at 2-2, you probably turned that 100 into about 160 or so (I haven't been keeping up with the NBA moneylines). Take the Thunder again in the next game and if they win you, again, will have made yourself prolly between 150-200. Do it again in the final game and if the Thunder win the series, it doesn't hurt you too bad. You probably will have gotten 500 out of yoru 600 back.

The reason I like the moneyline on a per-game basis rather than taking the Thunder to win it all right now is that it is more flexible. In other wrods, if you take the 375 to win 600 and the Heat win the next game, you basically over-hedged.