First round SEC bye and NCAA chances.

The South Alabama and Coastal Carolina losses are both REALLY bad. People aren't looking deeply enough into that.

Finishing 20-10 (10-6) going into the tournament, getting a 1st round bye, winning a game, losing to Kentucky, and finishing 21-11 still probably won't be enough.

Losing one of our remaining games in the regular season and winning two games without a bye seems far-fetched as well. That would put us at 21-12, which also probably wouldn't get it done.

Two years ago, Mississippi State finished the regular season 21-10 (9-7). They got a bye in the SEC Tournament, won two games, and lost to a great Kentucky team in the tournament championship in overtime.

They had a very similar resume to what we would finish with this year, assuming we win our last four games. They had poor losses to Rider and Western Kentucky, They had a good win against Old Dominion, but most of their OOC wins were against bad teams. They even had a win @Houston.*

To look further, the SEC was 4th in conference RPI that season. From what I'm looking at, it's also 4th this year.

The major difference in comparing the two would be that Mississippi State finished the season losing their last two regular season SEC games, including a 3-3 mark in their final six games. Under any scenario that gets LSU into the NCAA Tournament this season, they would be AT LEAST 6-1 in the final seven SEC games (possibly 7-0).

Now, of course, the NCAA Tournament field was four teams smaller two years ago than it is this year. So perhaps finishing 21-11 with a loss in the semifinals of the conference tournament would put LSU right on the line - either last four in, or last four out. But keep in mind that we would likely have to play a close game in the semifinal to impress the committee (although that didn't work for State two years ago).

In my opinion, LSU will have to beat Kentucky in the SEC Tournament to make the NCAA. We aren't anywhere close to the bubble right now, looking at things objectively. Four wins against average SEC teams isn't going to change that.

We're going to have to beat one of the big boys in New Orleans. Either Kentucky or Florida. And unless some crazy shite goes down these last few weeks of SEC play, it won't be Florida.

*Yes, Houston made the NCAA Tournament in 2010. But it was strictly because they won the C-USA Tournament. They had no shot at getting an at-large bid.

Better chance at the SEC bye than the Dance at the moment, though attaining the first is almost a necessity to have a shot at the second. Tigers are currently in the 60's with their RPI and in the 40's with their SoS. If they win out they'll likely be in the low 50's with their RPI and still in the 40's with their SoS. Two wins in the SEC tourney would still be needed at that point to go dancing. Given the teams they would likely have to overcome in NO that would push their RPI into the 40's and the SoS possibly into the upper 30's. I think they'd get in at that point but that's obviously a longshot from here. Great shot at getting into the NIT which is still a huge step up from the past two seasons.