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re: The Road to the 2012 Kentucky Derby

Posted on 1/31/12 at 10:16 pm to
Posted by lsu31always
Team 31™
Member since Jan 2008
108128 posts
Posted on 1/31/12 at 10:16 pm to
How on earth did I start this, I came into the thread with some legit horses, you then falsely took credit for my astute knowledge of horse racing.
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 1/31/12 at 10:44 pm to
Cool link asp. thanks.

Creative Cause: good profile

Rousing Sermon: we'll see if he can beat Liaison this time around
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117507 posts
Posted on 1/31/12 at 10:53 pm to
Thanks r2r

Regardless of who I bet in the derby, I will include him if he's there. He was the first 2 yr old I started watching.

When we were talking 2 yr olds this summer, I did a pretty good job, huh?

Top 3 in the juvy

I think rousing sermon will catch him this time

Whatcha think of the race at Tampa?

And to boh...

I got chills watching awesome feather pull away. I'm really excited about the mares this year.
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 2/1/12 at 8:54 am to
Yes you did a fine job with your uber early analysis.

Sam F. Davis at Tampa looks like a bunch of lower class horses. Winner will step up in class and run in the Tampa Bay Derby next month, I would assume, and the rest will be forgotten about. Reveron seems like the horse to beat in that one but I haven't really looked at the PPs yet.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117507 posts
Posted on 2/1/12 at 12:05 pm to
Animal kingdom

In other horse news.

I still think caleb's posse got robbed, even though he mostly won sprinting.

Also, I will never again be so good with my 2 yr old picks
Posted by Kickadawgitfeelsgood
Lafayette LA
Member since Nov 2005
14090 posts
Posted on 2/3/12 at 9:12 pm to
Graham Motion sends out State of Play at Tampa tmoro. Very interested to see how he uses his speed. If they decide to sit in the pocket and the horse still is able to blow through the stretch, we may have our firsf serious contender when the pools open next Friday .
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117507 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 8:47 am to
They open next week?

I think this year I will avoid the future pools. I must be bad luck, because every horse I bet seems to get hurt.

I have yet to even have one make it to the gates.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117507 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 9:23 am to
Haskin's derby dozen

I always like these, especially when the horses start galloping/working at Churchill.
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 3:13 pm to
Liaison 12-1 ML in race 6 at Santa Anita. Im all over that. Putting him with Rousing Sermon and Isn't He Clever. In Vegas for the weekend, what else should I lay something down on?
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117507 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 4:09 pm to
I'd toss a few on groovin solo to hit the board just for fun
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 5:06 pm to
Done. 19-1. 8 MTP!
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117507 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 5:32 pm to
I had $2 show on him. Just imagine if he'd stayed up what that payoff would have been! Bombs away in the Lewis today!

However, I think the 6 should have come down as well. He was all over the place like the damn 3

Watch the head on.

Oh, and I'll have another is BEAUTIFUL
This post was edited on 2/4/12 at 5:34 pm
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 7:08 pm to
Well frick my life. Had a $2 show as well
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117507 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 7:18 pm to
I watched again on my computer instead of my phone. I guess I see why only he came down, but the 6 wasn't straight either.

At least liaison and bejarano are ok. It would have been a 43-1 over an 11-1 over an 18-1 (I think).

Show prices would have been crazy with the 2 favorites off the board.

You saw a maiden took the Davis? He looked good doing it too
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 2/10/12 at 2:34 pm to
Derby futures wagering opened today. (Pool 1)
- PPs here
- Bloodhorse article here

The field is the obvious favorite at 9/5. Union Rags (the consensus best colt going forward, IMO) is at 10/1? Potentially some really good value in there. Empire Way at 50/1 looks solid.

Also, tomorrow: Ever So Lucky headlines the Hutcheson

quote:

Everyone, including trainer Jonathan Sheppard, is waiting to see if the speedy Ever So Lucky belongs on the Triple Crown trail. The answer, hopefully, will come Feb. 11 when the son of Indian Charlie leads a short field of six in the $150,000 Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park.

Sheppard entered Ever So Lucky in the seven-furlong Hutcheson, but on Feb. 8 said there is a possibility that he could scratch him and instead point toward the March 10 Swale at the same distance. The bay colt is doing fine, Sheppard said, but he may want to give him an extra month to make his 3-year-old debut. Ever So Lucky's five-furlong work in 1:01 3/5 on Feb. 6 was not exactly what the trainer was looking for from his final breeze before the Hutcheson.

"It was too slow. I think the horse needed one more good work," Sheppard said. "I mean, it was better than nothing, but it didn't prove much.

"The horse wasn't even blowing after the work. When he worked the previous time, he worked in company. Julien (Leparoux) had to ride him a little bit to catch up. The horse got something out of it, and I wanted something similar. This time for some reason I decided to work him alone." Even with the less-than-ideal work, Sheppard said: "I expect we'll end up running him. The horse is doing wonderfully."

Ever So Lucky, who was bought by George Strawbridge Jr. for $600,000 last year, is a speedballer who broke his maiden by 3 1/4 lengths in his debut at Churchill Downs in November, and came back to finish second to Gemologist in the Kentucky Jockey Club at the end of the month. Leparoux has been named to ride and they would break from post 6.


Other news and notes:

- Here is an informative breakdown of the Top 20 on their Derby Watch List from DRF.

- Three big names, Shackleford, Ruler on Ice and Flat Out, are running tomorrow in the G1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park.

This post was edited on 2/10/12 at 2:36 pm
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117507 posts
Posted on 2/10/12 at 9:47 pm to
Let's see who I can jinx to injury on this year's future pool.

I'll probably bet a few Sunday afternoon.

I'm interested to see sabercat come back. I have a little to gain with every decent bluegrass cat runner (I hope ).

Sheppard is by far my favorite trainer. I read a really good article on him years ago and now I <3 him.

I'm glad he's not going to push the horse to do something he may not want to do (1 1/4). He's stepping him up slowly, and with an Indian Charlie he's being damn smart.

Oh, and I've decided that when I win the lotto I will have a hard spun baby


Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117507 posts
Posted on 2/11/12 at 4:32 pm to
Too damn bad I went against my better judgement (y'all know my hate for unbridled's song) and put $3 win on mission impazible because he looked good

I'm due to hit something soon!
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24814 posts
Posted on 2/11/12 at 5:58 pm to
My boy Johnny V winning the Donn. I love that guy.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117507 posts
Posted on 2/11/12 at 6:58 pm to
That horse definitely just appeared on my radar

Good win by get stormy today too.

Don't know if anybody else saw yet, but Hansen is headed to the Gotham and taking off the blinkers.
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 2/25/12 at 9:46 am to
Risen Star day!

- El Padrino the favorite
- Brisnet PPs

Also this weekend, undefeated Pletcher colt Algorithms is set for another key race in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes tomorrow at Gulfstream. Was installed as the 8/5 favorite over Union Rags. PPs

I like another Pletcher horse here, Discreet Dancer. Interested to see how he handles taking a step up in class.
This post was edited on 2/25/12 at 9:47 am
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