re: Why Vegas Likes Bama in NOLA

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Bama may have the better offense, but LSU's defense had a second gear that Bama's seemed to lack especially as the game wore on.

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Illusion only. I didn't see that at all. I actually saw Richardson wearing down your defense late in the game.

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This guy's entire analysis is based on a falsehood: more yards = better performace. Look at the Sugar Bowl: Michigan won by capitalizing on VT's mistakes and by NOT allowing VT to score touchdowns in the red zone in the 1st half. Defense and special teams are part of the game, too.

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I guarantee you Vegas factors in ST's. But don't get your panties in a wad. It is a 1-2pt max line so the betters think its close period.
Keys to the game:
1) Who makes the most mistakes? After a 40day layoff you can count on lots of mistakes by both teams. But who makes the most? I might give LSU an edge because they are more opportunistic this year than Bama. See TO margin.
2) Can LSU pressure AJ enough to shut down consistent passing. Biggest chance for LSU to make a difference. Its the key to shutting us down. TR will get his yards but not enough if we can't pass.
3) Can JJ/JL throw it successfully (at least 150yds) Doubtful but possible. We have shown some weakness to the deep throw. If JJ can pass it a few times (12-15 or so completions), that might be enough to open up the run.

Assumptions:
1)LSU doesn't let TR get lose on a screen or dump off pass.
2)No big gain for either team on KO or Punt returns. Yes, Maze can do it too now that he's healthy.

My guess is LSU gets a slight edge on Bama mistakes but AJ has some success throwing it. JJ will not. Bama wins a close one. 14-7.