re: Hornets interested in Nene and Barea

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1c. Nene
This one scares the hell out of me. What am I getting, exactly? He's 29 years old and has a surgically repaired knee. He played nearly as many games the past three years (260, including playoffs) as he did for his first six seasons (315, including playoffs). He's not exactly an emotional leader — those Nuggets teams melted down as much as anyone, and you'd have to consider it at least somewhat telling that Carmelo Anthony pushed his way off a team that had a top-five center on it. The biggest thing for me: If he's a top-five center, then why is Nene such a lousy rebounder? These past three seasons, he averaged 32.6, 33.6 and 30.5 minutes per game … and 7.8, 7.6 and 7.6 rebounds. He wasn't even a top-25 rebounder last year. (FYI: LeBron nearly outrebounded him!) He also doesn't protect the rim that well; for instance, Dwyane Wade (1.14) Channing Frye (1.01), Shane Battier (0.99) averaged more blocks than Nene (0.97) last season.

With Nene, you're getting an athletic big man who makes 60 percent of his shots, as well as someone who makes opposing teams say, "They have a center" … and that's about it. At 29, you are who you are. He can't quite take over games; he's never going to do what Chandler did in last year's playoffs from a protecting-the-rim standpoint; he needs extra rebounding help or you're getting killed on the boards; he's never won anything; and oh, you better hope his knees hold up. For me, it's no contest — not only would I rather have Gasol or Chandler, I'd rather overpay Jordan (at least he's an up-and-comer) for 50 to 60 percent of what Nene will probably cost (four years, $74.3 million without a sign-and-trade).

So who's willing to splurge on Nene? Not to go all Hubie Brown on you, but we know the Nets will pay whatever it takes for a center and they're already "all in" after the Deron Williams trade. We know Houston is getting an above-average center come hell or high water. We know Indiana, Denver and Sacramento have a crapload of cap space, and we know Toronto and Washington are an executed amnesty clause away from getting there. We also know that Memphis is vowing to match any restricted offer to Gasol.

That means seven teams might be bidding for Chandler and Nene … and two (New Jersey and Houston) are desperate. Even if they're worth $55 million apiece for four years, they'll end up getting $20 million more; I wouldn't be shocked if the Nets pulled off a sign-and-trade with Denver to give Nene $100 million for five. You think Mikhail Prokhorov cares about overpaying the fifth-best center in basketball? You think he cares about dropping an extra $50 million per year with the tougher luxury tax? I don't think Nene's next contract will be remembered on the Rashard Lewis/Gilbert Arenas level as a historical abomination, but at the very least, it will join Joe Johnson's extension as this decade's defining example of a team overpaying a good player who isn't great (or even close to great).

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