re: UFC 128: Shogun vs. Jones

Prediction: despite my man crush on jones, I'm going with shogun. A few poor performances when he first came over from pride overshadowed what was a truly impressive run he had in that organization before coming over

He seems to be back where he was then. I think his experience, and jones inexperience much more to the point, will give rua the edge

Jones went from unknown, to prospect, to contender and headliner and having a countdown show on him in no time flat. He had never showed any signs of fabled "UFC jitters" but I think the pressure will affect him the time around.

He has "enjoyed" relative anonymity despite his meteoric rise up until now. Now he is the focal point, and he is expected to step into a spotlight that is usually taken up by guys with much more seasoning and experience.

I say relative anonymity because, while people surely saw him coming and have been on his wagon for a little while now, it has never been about him until now. There is usually a progression for contenders, and he skipped the limelight step.

He has been, at the height of his exposure thus far, the guy on the early portion of the televised card who everyone talked about UNTIL the main event guys stepped in.

The step he skipped is being that guy headlining a spike tv card for the number 1 contender spot. Or the co Main event fighting for the title shot

He stepped in for the injured Evans, and has been thrust to the forefront before expected, and I think before he even expected. Sometimes, when things like that happen before you expect it, then you settle. You concede. You may take that opportunity, especially at such a young age, to feel out the waters. You think "I'm not really supposed to be here yet, but win or lose, it will help me in the long run. So next time I get here, I'll be ready."

That is obviously an attitude that will hold you back. With that thought process you are accepting that the reality is, you are going to have a hard time coming out on top, so you just hope for a good performance and to learn from the experience for your shot "next time."'
Someone like shogun has a decidedly different outlook. He thinks "this kid doesn't deserve it, he may one day, but not now. Let me go out and show him what level he is truly on at the point in his career."

I can see a mental edge for shogun in the way these events over the past few months have taken place.

Disclaimer: history shows that with all of my experience, and all of my fights, and all of my studying of other fighters, and all of the years I have seen things in this sport, that when I have an angle on someone, and I'm sure about something, then I am dead wrong 95% of the time