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Jordan Jefferson's Improvement (w/ stats)

Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:43 pm
Posted by hashtag
Comfy, AF
Member since Aug 2005
27719 posts
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:43 pm
I hear people all the time say that JJ is improving greatly every game and that he is much better than he was last year. Based on observation alone, I disagree since I still see him doing these things and haven't seen him making any progress with them:
1. Staring down WRs.
2. Holding onto the ball too long.
3. Dropping back 7-10 yards making it easy for the D to get a sack.
4. Not seeing wide open WRs.

So, I decided to take a look at stats to see if I'm being too harsh, or if some are imagining that he's making great strides. I pulled stats from his first start (against Arkansas), the 2008 season (including Ole Miss, since he had 20 pass attempts in that game), and the 2009 season. See for yourself and make your own judgments on his level of improvement.

First Start (vs Arkansas, 2008):
Passing:
9/21, 143 yards, 2 TDs, 4 sacks, 0 INTs
42% completion rate
Rushing:
19, 50 yards; 2.6/carry, 0 rushing TDs

2008 Averages:
Passing:
11.6/22, 145.3 yards, 1.3 TDs, 3 sacks, .33 INTs
52% completion rate
Rushing:
13, 32.6 yards; 2.5/carry, 0 rushing TDs

2009 Averages:
Passing:
14.7/23.3, 170 yards, 1.3 TDs, 2.6 sacks, .44 INTs
63% completion rate
Rushing:
9.3, 17.6 yards; 1.9/carry, 1 rushing TD (.1/game)

My observations:
+ He's only attempting about 1 more pass/game than last year.
+ He's raised his completion rate by 11%, which is very significant.
+ He's added about 25 yards/game passing
- He's rushing less, with less success than before.
- He's still averaging 1.3 TD passes/game. Zero improvement in that area.
Posted by tiger band trumpet
Member since Sep 2008
5675 posts
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:48 pm to
I'm not sure if you can compare the two seasons. Last year is to small of a sample. I would use a game by game comparison from this year. Did you use the bowl game in your comparison?
Posted by VICK225
BATONROUGE
Member since Oct 2008
35 posts
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:49 pm to
jj good quarterback just no o;line to shed time
Posted by jmitc22
Brrrrr
Member since Jan 2007
1684 posts
Posted on 11/15/09 at 9:50 pm to
he does not have a problem with staring down receivers. he frequently looks off safeties. On some plays he does, but so do a lot of QB's. And when RJ jackson is getting a ton of receptions, it means check-downs are being made.

Other than that nice post.
Posted by OBUDan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40723 posts
Posted on 11/16/09 at 1:52 am to
He's shown decent progression. JJ's play is the least of my concerns.
Posted by coldhotwings
Mississippi
Member since Jan 2008
6497 posts
Posted on 11/16/09 at 7:44 am to
quote:

2008 Averages:
Passing:
11.6/22, 145.3 yards, 1.3 TDs, 3 sacks, .33 INTs
52% completion rate
Rushing:
13, 32.6 yards; 2.5/carry, 0 rushing TDs

2009 Averages:
Passing:
14.7/23.3, 170 yards, 1.3 TDs, 2.6 sacks, .44 INTs
63% completion rate
Rushing:
9.3, 17.6 yards; 1.9/carry, 1 rushing TD (.1/game)


I think Miles/Crowton will open up the playbook more for Jefferson in his junior season. The O-line should improve and he will throw for more TD's and get less sacks. His interception avg will go up because he will take more risks with more shots downfield and smaller windows. He will find a good balance of pass/run with a higher ypc due to less sacks and better decision making. I see him getting a TD 10+ yards out and 2 from QB sneaks in goal line situations.

2010 Averages:
Passing:
16/25, 220 yards, 2 TDs, 2 sacks, .5 INTs
64% completion rate
Rushing:
10, 30 yards; 3/carry, 3 rushing TD (.3/game)

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