Posted Sept. 24 at 11:35 a.m. ET

WEEK 4 CFB POINT SPREAD MOVES
Paul Stone sounds like Texas football. He grew up south of Tyler, in Jacksonville ("home to two NFL quarterbacks, the McCown brothers," he says proudly), went to UT 25 years ago and now lives in Tyler, about 90 miles east of Dallas. "This is a real hotbed of D-I talent. Earl Campbell is from here. So is Matt Flynn, who led LSU to the national title a few years ago, and Ciron Black, LSU's left tackle, who will play on Sundays."

The man studies the college game for 40 hours a week during the season and just as many when it ends, constantly tracking historical, against-the-spread trends. Here is how highly regarded he is: With all the wise guys floating around Vegas, it's this guy from Texas -- who owns trade schools with his wife -- who has a picks column in the Las Vegas Review Journal.

Which is exactly why I called him this week to go over college football's five biggest line moves heading into Saturday. Remember, these are lessons in handicapping strategy, not just take-it-or-leave-it picks. So be wise and take some notes.

Matchup: LSU at Mississippi State
Line moves: LSU opened as 14.5-point favorites, currently 13. Line went as low as 12.5.
What that means: An SEC doormat taking action against a top 10 national power? That's sharps getting impatient with Les Miles.

Stone says: "Certainly LSU has been a little bit less impressive than most anticipated. The Tigers have an NFL-caliber tailback, a first-round left tackle and great talent at receiver. The victory at Washington doesn't look as lackluster as it did. Still, this offense is not the juggernaut everyone expected it to be. So that's making wise guys think about the other side. So is the fact Dan Mullen, the first-year coach at Mississippi State, got a win last week in conference at Vandy and his team scored points against Auburn the week before. I made this line at 14.5 and with a gun to my head I'd play LSU. But that's because of history: Looking back over time, teams that aren't used to winning who actually do usually come down a week later."