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Started By
Message
re: Nola
Posted on 5/23/09 at 11:52 am to Baloo
Posted on 5/23/09 at 11:52 am to Baloo
quote:
Try this thought experiement. Take two players. You know nothing about their hitting stats except two things:
1) They both have relatively the same number of at bats
2) Player A has 6 sac hits. Player B has 0 sac hits.
Now, knowing nothing else. Who's the better hitter? Anyone who has watched baseball for more than a year knows the answer to this question and will be right 95% of the time.
And this applies to Nola how? Nobody has said he's a good hitter.
Some have said that while he's not a great hitter, his OBP is pretty decent which helps justify his status as a starter. BTW, that is exactly what OBP is for. It is an attempt to give credit for things other than hits.
You have taken than and illogically argued that sacrifices should be counted against OBP. That's just stupid. Additionally, the thought that a person's OBP would go down if he were to sacrifice less is completely illogical as well. The guy would statistically perform the same way as he did in every other AB thus keeping his OBP very similar.
You have made numerous posts on the subject and have yet to make a decent argument for your position.
quote:
A player doesn't have much control whether the batted ball becomes a hit or an out
So, in your mind, the difference between a guy who hits .250 and a guy who hits .350 can be summed up in the # of HRs and in luck. I find that funny.
I'd say that the difference is in many different factors that involve skill...not luck (ability to make contact consistently, ability to hit the ball hard, ability to hit the ball on a line, general approach at the plate, ability to handle off speed pitches, ability to spread the ball around, ability to cover the inside and outside of the plate, ability to lay off pitches he can't handle, etc. etc. etc.)
1
Posted on 5/23/09 at 12:30 pm to moneyg
I'd say that a guy who hit 350 with no power and no walks is going to a sudden and unfortunate drop in his batting average. I'm saying without peripheral skills, that 350 average will be a 250 average next season. Many players see their average move dramatically from season to season. It's never occurred to you to wonder why? Do they forget how to hit? Or learn how to?
You make a conclusitory argument and then accuse me of abusing logic? Odd tact. I've made an argument as to why sacrifices should be included as the fact that THEY ACTUALLY HAPPENED. You've made no argument as to why they shouldn't other than that you think I'm illogical and that errors and fielder's choices (which can be distinguished) are not included either. Make an argument other than "he would have gotten on base had he not sacrificed". That's conjecture.
I also never said a player's OBP would go down if he were to sarcifice less. I said that a coach/manager is more likely to ask a guy who can't hit very well to sacrifice. Which is a completely different argument.
You argue that if instead of sacrificing, a player would do X is making an assumption. I'm making no asumption about what the guy who would do in those "lost" PA's. I'm saying we already know what happened: he got out. He failed to get on base and should be rated as such. You say that some outs just don't count. But they do.
And when a player sacrifices as often as Nola, yes, it skews his OBP. According to his OBP, when he comes up to the plate, he has a 33.7% chance of getting on. However, when he comes up to the plate, he reaches base 31.9% of the time, in real life. No assumptions.
When Nola comes up to the plate, 31.9% of the time, it has resulted in an out. His OBP distorts the actual outcome of events by 20 points. Going way back in this thread, someone got to the crux of the argument about Nola: do the runs he saves on defense make up for the runs he loses on offense? Does this high number of sacrifice outs cost our offense even more runs than a typical 337 OBP hitter?
Honestly, I don't know. but it's a neat question. I'm sorry that you don't like me asking it.
quote:
You have taken than and illogically argued that sacrifices should be counted against OBP. That's just stupid. Additionally, the thought that a person's OBP would go down if he were to sacrifice less is completely illogical as well. The guy would statistically perform the same way as he did in every other AB thus keeping his OBP very similar.
You make a conclusitory argument and then accuse me of abusing logic? Odd tact. I've made an argument as to why sacrifices should be included as the fact that THEY ACTUALLY HAPPENED. You've made no argument as to why they shouldn't other than that you think I'm illogical and that errors and fielder's choices (which can be distinguished) are not included either. Make an argument other than "he would have gotten on base had he not sacrificed". That's conjecture.
I also never said a player's OBP would go down if he were to sarcifice less. I said that a coach/manager is more likely to ask a guy who can't hit very well to sacrifice. Which is a completely different argument.
You argue that if instead of sacrificing, a player would do X is making an assumption. I'm making no asumption about what the guy who would do in those "lost" PA's. I'm saying we already know what happened: he got out. He failed to get on base and should be rated as such. You say that some outs just don't count. But they do.
And when a player sacrifices as often as Nola, yes, it skews his OBP. According to his OBP, when he comes up to the plate, he has a 33.7% chance of getting on. However, when he comes up to the plate, he reaches base 31.9% of the time, in real life. No assumptions.
When Nola comes up to the plate, 31.9% of the time, it has resulted in an out. His OBP distorts the actual outcome of events by 20 points. Going way back in this thread, someone got to the crux of the argument about Nola: do the runs he saves on defense make up for the runs he loses on offense? Does this high number of sacrifice outs cost our offense even more runs than a typical 337 OBP hitter?
Honestly, I don't know. but it's a neat question. I'm sorry that you don't like me asking it.
This post was edited on 5/23/09 at 12:34 pm
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