quote:
We have a weighted average of groups with different birthrates. Over time the aggregate average will increase to a growing population level due to high birth-rate groups (ie conservative Christians, especially groups like the Amish) becoming more numerous and having a higher weight in the average. It is trending down temporarily because of the abrupt change over the last ~10-20 years of mostly liberals to stop having children. Mathematically, the total TFR will trend towards the TFR of the highest groups as they grow more numerous in comparison to other groups.

While this is true. You'll still have a point in time where your population is senior heavy (when many of these childless progressives get into their 70s and start to be a burden on the healthcare system.

Edit: I'm not defending illegal immigration, BTW. As another poster said, that's not a solution for any problem.

This post was edited on 4/28/24 at 2:13 am

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Posted by Browncd81

Member since Nov 2020

490 posts

Posted on 4/28/24 at 3:17 am to Azkiger

quote:
While this is true. You'll still have a point in time where your population is senior heavy (when many of these childless progressives get into their 70s and start to be a burden on the healthcare system. Edit: I'm not defending illegal immigration, BTW. As another poster said, that's not a solution for any problem

Fully agree with you. And don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying in the OP that this will correct quickly, easily, or without a rough transition period such as the childless liberals being at senior age.

But I do take some relief in knowing over time that TFR will recover somewhat and it is the left that will decline in share of population.

Unfortunately, our policy has screwed this up, bc Muslims, many of which are entering illegally, are another higher TFR group that will over time become a higher percentage of population and raise the national birthrate.

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