re: CPI comes in hotter than expected, futures down 1%+

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1. FOMC is officially on record now saying they anticipate it.

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"Anticipate" is a soft word to cover their asses in case they are wrong (like with inflation being "transitory"). It's not different than their saying "we think we may be able to make three cuts." It's not concrete, but they want it to sound as close to it as possible to keep the market happy. To underscore this, they initially anticipated three cuts for 2024. At this rate, that would be three cuts between May and December (one per quarter).

Rate cuts are done to spur growth but they can cause inflation (due to the extra liquidity in the economy). Inflation is still far from tamed, it's now increasing once again .3, .4 and .4 MoM (respectively) each month thus far and 3.1, 3.2 and 3.5 YoY (respectively).

The only way three cuts happen this year is if GDP and inflation drop significantly and unemployment rises significantly between now and May. I don't see any of those happening without some sort of black swan event.

Either that or JPow just says "frick it" and bends the country over to take a healthy slamming of runaway inflation up the arse.

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2. We’re barely in Q2

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But we know the direction inflation should be going but it's doing the opposite. Along with that, oil and gasoline prices are far more likely to make it increase more in the coming months.