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re: Let's Find Out How Smart You Baws Are
Posted on 3/24/24 at 10:08 am to FutureMikeVIII
Posted on 3/24/24 at 10:08 am to FutureMikeVIII
quote:
That makes no fricking sense
See the simulation the guy posted above. Go run it 100 times and you will see that keeping your original choice loses about 67% of the time.
For instance, I just ran it 100 times and ended up losing 63% of the time if I kept my original selection. The more times you run it, the closer it will get to the 33/67 probability. This is a basic fact of statistics - the more data you have, the more the trends show up in the data.
Seeing a simulation is what convinced Princeton mathematician Paul Erdos. He was also skeptical until he saw a guy run it on a computer.
This post was edited on 3/24/24 at 10:12 am
2
Posted on 3/24/24 at 11:03 am to AUstar
quote:
For instance, I just ran it 100 times and ended up losing 63% of the time if I kept my original selection. The more times you run it, the closer it will get to the 33/67 probability. This is a basic fact of statistics - the more data you have, the more the trends show up in the data.
Yeah that’s the law of large numbers . There’s no escaping it.
Posted on 3/24/24 at 1:23 pm to AUstar
quote:I understand the Monty Hall problem. I was responding to the dude that said both of the remaining shells would have 2/3 probability of being right. Which is obviously illogical.
See the simulation the guy posted above. Go run it 100 times and you will see that keeping your original choice loses about 67% of the time.
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