re: Let's Find Out How Smart You Baws Are

quote:

---

Well staying or switching is also a 50/50 probability of picking the correct one.

---

Nope.

If you stick with your original choice your odds always remain 1/3 because you are not taking advantage of the new information. Just imagine 100 shells. Do you think your odds ever improve past the initial 1% just because losers keep getting revealed? No, because you didn't have that information when you chose that shell. But if you wait for more information, your odds can improve drastically by making a new choice (imagine waiting until 98 losers are revealed).