re: Let's Find Out How Smart You Baws Are

The reasoning is you have a 2/3rds chance you picked the wrong shell. So the odds are you picked the wrong shell so switching should theoretically increase your odds after one wrong answer is eliminated. And if you run the scenario 1000 times you will probably win in the neighborhood of 2/3rds of the time by switching.

But after one of the choices is eliminated, there is still a 50% chance it is under either.

It is akin to flipping a coin 10 times. the odds of you flipping heads 10 times in a row is very low. The odds of an individual flip being heads, even the last one after you flipped 9 straight, is still 50%. I also learned that from Marilyn vos Savant in Parade magazine.