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re: Let's Find Out How Smart You Baws Are
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:24 pm to AUstar
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:24 pm to AUstar
i know the theoretical statistical answer is "always switch", but the real life answer is "nothing changes." you had a 1 in 3 chance before. now you have a 1 in 2 chance by staying or changing. you gain nothing by changing.
it is the same as starting with 2 shells, and picking 1. you gain nothing by switching. the odds remain the same
it is the same as starting with 2 shells, and picking 1. you gain nothing by switching. the odds remain the same
2
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:46 pm to piratedude
quote:
i know the theoretical statistical answer is "always switch", but the real life answer is "nothing changes."
The theoretical answer is the real life answer. In both cases you have a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch.
Posted on 3/22/24 at 2:40 pm to piratedude
If before you picked, you were given the chance to pick shell A (33%) or both B&C (66%) you would obviously pick B&C because you double your odds. That’s essentially what you’re getting, the opportunity to trade one pick for two.
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