re: Putin’s Invasion Had the Opposite Intended Effect - Russia Now Surrounded by NATO

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This aggression was never actually about NATO.

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This aggression was never actually about NATO.

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All sources show a similar Ukraine vision of a peace deal. Key elements of it are outlined below.

(1) The peace treaty applies after the Russian army withdraws from the territory of Ukraine, except Crimea and the occupied Donbas area.

(2) Ukraine expects a group of world powers to offer security guarantees. Kyiv proposed the following guarantors' list: Russia, China, the U.S., Great Britain, France, Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, and Israel. However, not all of them have so far agreed to that. Details of this role are even less clear. Ukraine insists that the guarantors should pledge protection equal to Art. 5 of the NATO Washington Treaty, but it's rather unreal.

(3) These guarantees do not apply to the occupied Crimea and the occupied Donbas area. This would allow guarantor states not to be involved in the war on the first day after the ratification of the treaty.

(4) Instead, Ukraine limits its sovereignty in Security and Defence. Kyiv pledges non-accession to NATO or other military alliances and to change the Constitution for this purpose (now Ukraine). Ukraine appears ready to take much stronger obligations than just non-alignment. In particular, Kyiv proposes a ban on any foreign military contingent in Ukraine. Ukraine can conduct any joint military exercises on its soil and sea only with the consent of the guarantor states (including Russia).

(5) In exchange for giving up NATO, the EU Member States present among the guarantors (including Germany and France) guarantee Ukraine's assistance in joining the European Union.

(6) Ukraine and Russia are starting negotiations on the status of Crimea, which will last for 15 years. At the same time, the negotiators emphasize that the issues of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol will be considered separately (probably assuming a different agreement with Russia on them). Instead, Ukraine promises not to return Crimea by military means, but there is no such promise for Donbas.

(7) All this will work only if such an agreement is approved by referendum, ratified by Verkhovna Rada and the guarantor states. The process will begin only after the withdrawal of troops, as referred to in paragraph 1, but may fail at each stage of ratification.

European Pravda - 30 March 2022

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Schröder says that in 2022 he received a request from Ukraine with an offer to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, conveying a message to Putin. According to the ex-chancellor, the current Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov participated in this process.

Schroeder said that then the negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow consisted of five main points:

1. Refusal of Ukraine's membership in NATO.

2. Abolition of Ukrainization laws prohibiting the Russian language in the public sphere. Ukraine was ready to discuss the return of the Russian language to Donbass.

3. Donbass remains part of Ukraine, but becomes an autonomy based on the model of South Tyrol in Italy (autonomy with special status).

4. Ukraine receives security guarantees from the UN Security Council and Germany (according to the “5+1” formula, which was supported, according to Schroeder, by Umerov)

5. Crimea, judging by Schroeder’s wording, remains with the Russian Federation: “Crimea for Russia is not just a piece of land, it is part of its history.” But the Ukrainians, he said, demanded negotiations on the status of the peninsula.

According to Schroeder, it was not possible to reach an agreement because “everything was decided in Washington.”

"I think that the Americans did not want a compromise between Ukraine and Russia. The Americans think that the Russians can be contained.

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The war could have ended in the spring of 2022 if Ukraine had agreed to a neutral status - Arakhamia
November 24, 2023

The war could have ended in the spring of 2022 if Ukraine had agreed to neutrality.

This statement was made by the leader of the Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia, on air with journalist Natalya Moseychuk.

“Russia’s goal was to put pressure on us so that we would accept neutrality. This was the main thing for them: they were ready to end the war if we accepted neutrality, like Finland once did. And we would give an obligation that we would not join NATO. This is the main thing,” – said Arakhamia.

When asked why Ukraine did not agree, he replied that for this, firstly, it was necessary to change the Constitution, and secondly, there is no trust in the Russians that they will do this. He also said that Boris Johnson came to Kyiv then and said that he did not want to sign anything with the Russians and “let’s just fight.”

It should be noted that the media previously repeatedly reported that the Ukrainian authorities refused to sign the agreement in the spring of 2022 after negotiations with Johnson. And now, as we see, Arakhamia has actually confirmed this.

Let us recall that according to media reports, Putin in the spring of 2022 was ready to withdraw troops to the line on February 24 in exchange for the neutral status of Ukraine. And former German Chancellor Schröder, who participated in the negotiations , stated that Putin even agreed to return Donbass to Ukraine with a special status.

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