re: January Jobs numbers - WTF?

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There really needs to be some firings and replacements over the levels of swing we are seeing.

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Since making that post I've gone back and looked at state-reported numbers versus BLS reporting for each state and they correlate (I went through only about half the states and found only one percentage off and it was actually a higher job-creation number than what BLS reported).

After that I dug around in Jobless Claims (new and continued) as well as SNAP, Section 8 and LFPR. New jobless claims are fairly unchanged (remaining low), welfare enrollment has remained unchanged, but continued claims has been slowly climbing since its bottom in October 2022. When looking at LFPR, it seems the brunt of people who have dropped out of the labor market since COVID are Boomers and early X'rs (55+) and Gen X/Millenials (25-54 age group). Gen Z (or whatever they are being called now, 16-24) has either increased (16-19) or made it back to around pre-COVID levels (20-24).

What I glean from all of this is that there's a lot of quick job-hopping, but those who are taking unemployment are staying on it longer but not (yet?) enrolling in welfare programs. When looking at hours worked and part-time job statistics, a growing number of workers are working multiple part-time jobs to make up for getting fewer hours (the lowest since amount of hours since 2010).

So perhaps the big swings we see in adjustments are indicative of a more chaotic employment environment?