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re: The Challenger exploded on this day 38 years ago...January 28, 1986.

Posted on 1/28/24 at 10:26 pm to
Posted by White Roach
Member since Apr 2009
9468 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 10:26 pm to
I believe that NASA calculated that there would be one or two failures in 100 launches. The last Challenger mission was something like the 102nd STS mission.

I'm going from 35 year old memory. It might have been the 110th or so, but that 98/99% success rate rang true.
Posted by AlwysATgr
Member since Apr 2008
16595 posts
Posted on 1/29/24 at 12:38 am to
quote:

I believe that NASA calculated that there would be one or two failures in 100 launches. The last Challenger mission was something like the 102nd STS mission.

I'm going from 35 year old memory. It might have been the 110th or so, but that 98/99% success rate rang true.


Did you mean Columbia instead of Challenger?

Challenger was the 25th shuttle mission; Columbia the 113th mission.
Posted by POTUS2024
Member since Nov 2022
11680 posts
Posted on 1/29/24 at 2:54 am to
quote:

I believe that NASA calculated that there would be one or two failures in 100 launches. The last Challenger mission was something like the 102nd STS mission.

I'm going from 35 year old memory. It might have been the 110th or so, but that 98/99% success rate rang true.


Wish I could remember the details but there was an engineer back in the day that thought there was too much sloppiness in the program. He predicted a catastrophic event within 25 launches. Challenger was #25.
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