re: Going for 2 in that situation.

That math is basically correct though. The numbers might not be exact (because 50% isn’t the exact rate of success on 2 pt attempts), but if you do convert your 2 pt attempts 50% of the time, you win 62.5% of the time and lose 37.5% of the time.

I showed the math on converting 2 pt attempts 40% of the time and why it still makes sense then.