re: Going for 2 in that situation.

It works even if you’re bad at 2 point conversion success rate with 40%.
Assuming you make your kicks:

Scenario 1 - Go for it, get it (40%); kick it next time - 40% win
Scenario 2 - Go for it, don’t get it (60%); go for it, get it (40%) - OT - 24% of the time; split the wins 12% each
Scenario 3 - Go for it, don’t get it (60%); go for it, don’t get it (60%) - 36% loss

So 52% vs. 48%. Again, this is if you’re bad at 2 point conversions and have XPs as a guaranteed make the math still tells you to go for it.

I feel like when people don’t understand the math they just tend to call it analytics.