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re: Going for 2 in that situation.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 4:15 pm to theCAW
Posted on 1/22/24 at 4:15 pm to theCAW
Mathematically it makes sense sure if you assume 50% odds but not sure where this percent is coming from besides people saying “you either make it or you don’t”
What I see is a high risk high reward strategy. If your kicker sucks it’s the right move.
What I see is a high risk high reward strategy. If your kicker sucks it’s the right move.
2
Posted on 1/22/24 at 4:46 pm to theCAW
quote:
Mathematically it makes sense sure if you assume 50% odds but not sure where this percent is coming from
In 2023, teams were successful on 2-point conversions 70 out of 127 times (55%).
we are rounding down from 55% to 50%. even rounding down it still makes sense to go for it
Posted on 1/22/24 at 5:08 pm to theCAW
It works even if you’re bad at 2 point conversion success rate with 40%.
Assuming you make your kicks:
Scenario 1 - Go for it, get it (40%); kick it next time - 40% win
Scenario 2 - Go for it, don’t get it (60%); go for it, get it (40%) - OT - 24% of the time; split the wins 12% each
Scenario 3 - Go for it, don’t get it (60%); go for it, don’t get it (60%) - 36% loss
So 52% vs. 48%. Again, this is if you’re bad at 2 point conversions and have XPs as a guaranteed make the math still tells you to go for it.
I feel like when people don’t understand the math they just tend to call it analytics.
Assuming you make your kicks:
Scenario 1 - Go for it, get it (40%); kick it next time - 40% win
Scenario 2 - Go for it, don’t get it (60%); go for it, get it (40%) - OT - 24% of the time; split the wins 12% each
Scenario 3 - Go for it, don’t get it (60%); go for it, don’t get it (60%) - 36% loss
So 52% vs. 48%. Again, this is if you’re bad at 2 point conversions and have XPs as a guaranteed make the math still tells you to go for it.
I feel like when people don’t understand the math they just tend to call it analytics.
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